USD/EGP forecast: Inflation data and IMF review
USD/EGP traded near 50.73 after the CBE held interest rates at 19% and 20%, while June inflation data and Egypt’s latest IMF review remained in focus. Explore third-party USD/EGP forecasts and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
USD/EGP (US dollar to Egyptian pound) is trading at around 50.73 EGP per US dollar as of 12.41pm UTC on 28 July 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The pound's decline reflects a combination of Egypt's monetary policy stance and external financing dynamics. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept its overnight deposit and lending rates unchanged at 19% and 20%, respectively, at its early July meeting (Egypt Today, 9 July 2026). Economists surveyed by Reuters cited the need to preserve returns on domestic debt and manage fiscal deficit targets as reasons for keeping rates unchanged (Daily News Egypt, 8 July 2026).
Annual core inflation increased to 14.3% in June from 13.8% in May, while headline urban inflation eased slightly to 14.3% from 14.6%. Together, these readings kept inflationary pressures in focus for policymakers (Egypt Today, 9 July 2026).
Egypt also reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the seventh review of its Extended Fund Facility in late June. The authorities continued working towards meeting reform commitments, including measures relating to the currency and initial public offerings, ahead of the next review (IMF, 29 June 2026).
Third-party USD/EGP outlook: CBE rate hold and IMF review
As of 28 July 2026, third-party US dollar Egyptian pound predictions point to near-term stabilisation, followed by diverging medium-term trajectories. The forecasts reflect differing assumptions about Egypt's IMF programme, foreign-currency inflows and Central Bank of Egypt policy.
Reuters quarterly poll
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Egyptian pound to strengthen to around 49 EGP per US dollar by the end of the 2026/27 fiscal year. This represents an upgrade from an earlier forecast of 51.50 EGP per US dollar, with USD/EGP trading near 50.60 at the time of the poll. The panel's revised outlook reflects expectations of greater currency stability as economists project that the central bank will lower its overnight lending rate to around 16% from 20% (Reuters, 9 February 2026).
CoinCodex model-based short-term outlook
CoinCodex's algorithmic model projects USD/EGP at 50.67 by 30 July 2026, before rising to an average of 51.17 in August 2026, within a 49.70–52.36 range. As of 28 July 2026, the model classified the technical picture as neutral to bearish, with 15 of its 26 tracked indicators producing bearish signals and 11 producing bullish signals (CoinCodex, 28 July 2026).
Trading Economics macro model outlook
Trading Economics projects USD/EGP at 51.50 by the end of the current quarter, before easing to 50.62 over a 12-month horizon. The firm generates the projection using its global macroeconomic models and analyst expectations related to Egypt's monetary and fiscal outlook (Trading Economics, 28 July 2026).
Wallet Investor technical model forecast
Wallet Investor's algorithm, updated on 20 July 2026, projects USD/EGP rising from 51.15 to 65.28 by July 2027, an increase of around 27.6%. Its proprietary scoring system classifies the pair as a 'Strong Buy'; this label reflects the provider's methodology and should not be interpreted as a recommendation. The model's near-term projection shows the exchange rate rising through the remainder of 2026, based on moving-average and pivot signals (Wallet Investor, 20 July 2026).
Business Today Egypt analyst survey overview
Business Today Egypt reported that analysts expect the Egyptian pound to trade at around 49 EGP per US dollar by the end of the 2026/27 fiscal year, compared with a higher USD/EGP projection published earlier in the year. The outlet linked the revised forecast to increased foreign-currency inflows and continued progress under Egypt's IMF-backed reform programme (Business Today Egypt, 18 July 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
USD/EGP: macroeconomic and sector context
Egypt's headline urban inflation eased to 14.3% year on year in June 2026, down from 14.6% in May, while core inflation rose to 14.3%, per Central Bank of Egypt data (Egypt Today, 9 July 2026).
A Reuters poll of 15 economists, conducted 7–16 July 2026, projected the pound reaching around 49 EGP per US dollar by end-FY2026/27, up from an earlier 51.50 EGP forecast, with growth for 2025/26 raised to 4.8% and remittances up 31.2% to around 43.1 billion dollars, alongside reserves rising to 55 billion dollars by end-June 2026 (Egypt Today, 19 July 2026).
The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook update raised Egypt's 2026 growth forecast to 4.6%, even as it lowered its outlook for the wider MENA region amid regional conflict and shipping disruption near the Strait of Hormuz (Ahram Online, 8 July 2026).
The same Reuters poll saw the 2026/27 inflation forecast raised to 13.5%, with the CBE's overnight lending rate expected to fall from 20% to 16% by fiscal year-end (Egypt Today, 19 July 2026).
The IMF also reached a staff-level agreement with Egypt in June 2026 on the seventh EFF review, with further disbursements subject to board approval and reform progress (IMF, 29 June 2026).
US dollar–Egyptian pound: Technical overview
As of 12.41pm UTC on 28 July 2026, USD/EGP traded near 50.73, sitting just above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of 50.13. The pair remained slightly below its 50-day SMA of 50.74 and its 100-day SMA of 51.79, but above its 200-day SMA of 49.66. This mixed positioning left the broader technical picture without a clear directional bias.
Momentum indicators told a similar story. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) stood at 49.50, close to the neutral midpoint of 50, while the average directional index (ADX) was 32.10. As the ADX measures trend strength rather than direction, the reading suggested an established move without showing whether buyers or sellers had the advantage.
The classic pivot at 50.15 provided the nearest reference point. A sustained move above 51.22 could bring 53.36 into view, while a break below the 200-day SMA at 49.66 could shift attention towards 48.01.
The Hull moving average stood at 50.91, slightly above the latest price, providing another possible resistance reference. However, no single indicator offers a reliable signal in isolation (TradingView, 28 July 2026).
This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
USD/EGP history (2025–2026)
USD/EGP started 2025 at 50.82 EGP per US dollar and traded within a relatively narrow range during the first quarter, before rising to 51.63 on 9 April. The pair then moved lower through the middle of the year, reaching 48.57 by the end of July and 47.06 on 31 October as the Egyptian pound strengthened against the dollar.
USD/EGP remained near 47–48 through the end of 2025 and opened 2026 at 47.66. It fell to a two-year low of 46.68 on 16 February, before reversing sharply in March. The pair rose above 50 on 4 March and reached 54.53 by month-end, then set a two-year high of 54.69 on 7 April.
The exchange rate subsequently eased, falling to 49.13 by the end of June. It briefly dipped to 48.81 on 7 July before recovering to 51.37 on 24 July.
USD/EGP stood at 50.73 on 27 July 2026, around 0.2% below its level at the start of 2025, but 8.7% above its February 2026 low (Exchangerates.org, accessed 28 July 2026).
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Summary – USD/EGP 2026
- USD/EGP traded near 50.73 as of 12.41pm UTC on 28 July 2026, remaining within the range recorded over recent weeks.
- According to TradingView, technical indicators presented a mixed picture. The pair traded above its 20-day and 200-day moving averages but below its 50-day and 100-day averages, while the RSI remained neutral near 49.50.
- Factors influencing the exchange rate included Egypt’s IMF programme, central bank interest-rate policy, inflation data and foreign-currency inflows from remittances, tourism and other external sources.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
What is the US dollar Egyptian pound forecast?
USD/EGP forecasts published in July 2026 pointed to a broad near-term range of around 49–52 EGP per US dollar. A Reuters poll projected the pound at about 49 EGP per US dollar by the end of the 2026/27 fiscal year, while model-based forecasts varied more widely over longer periods. These projections depend on assumptions and may change as economic, political and market conditions develop.
What influences USD/EGP movements?
USD/EGP can respond to changes in Egyptian interest rates, inflation, foreign-exchange reserves and external financing. IMF programme progress, remittance flows, tourism revenue and Suez Canal receipts may also affect demand for foreign currency and confidence in the pound. Wider factors, including US dollar movements, regional developments and global risk conditions, can influence the pair. The effect of each driver can vary over time and may not always be immediate.
Could USD/EGP go up or down?
Yes. USD/EGP could rise if the Egyptian pound weakens against the US dollar, or fall if the pound strengthens. The direction may depend on inflation, interest-rate decisions, foreign-currency inflows, IMF-related reforms and broader market conditions. Technical indicators may provide reference levels, but they don’t predict outcomes with certainty. Third-party forecasts can also diverge because they use different assumptions, time horizons and modelling methods.