MiddleGame Ventures says VC market splits into barbell as higher rates squeeze mid-sized funds

By Public Technologies
  • MiddleGame Ventures analysis said venture capital is splitting into a barbell, pressuring mid-sized 10-year funds writing USD 10-50 million checks.
  • Higher real rates reset venture economics, with PitchBook estimating 2025 global fundraising at USD 118.6 billion versus USD 512 billion deployment.
  • Liquidity is shifting private, with Jefferies putting 2025 secondary volume at USD 240 billion, clearing at 78% of net asset value.
  • AI funding is concentrating, with Crunchbase reporting USD 510 billion invested in H1 2026; OpenAI and Anthropic took USD 217 billion.
  • Fintech is positioned as a beneficiary of policy-driven infrastructure, with KPMG putting H1 2026 investment at USD 103.1 billion, mostly M&A.


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