Oil is likely to remain a critical component of the world’s energy mix for at least the next two decades, according to a new report from BP.
The oil company says the current global energy mix will be more diverse than it has ever been by 2040, with oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each contributing around a quarter of supply.
However fast growth in developing economies will drive up global energy demand by a third, with oil and gas still accounting for more than half the world’s energy needs.
Chinese coal consumption appears to have plateaued, and global coal consumption is likely to flatline, with natural gas demand growing strongly and overtaking coal as the second largest source of energy.
Renewables will account for 14% of needs
Renewables, the world’s fastest-growing fuel source, will increase five-fold to provide around 14% of primary energy by 2040, according to BP’s Energy Outlook 2018.
The number of electric cars will grow to around 15% of the total global car pool, but because of the much higher intensity with which they are used, they will account for 30% of passenger vehicle miles.
Carbon emissions are set to continue to rise, however, prompting calls for further action to curb global warming.
“We need a far more decisive break from the past,” said BP group chief executive Bob Dudley.
“In BP, we continue to believe that carbon pricing must be a key element as it provides incentives for everyone to play their part – from consumers using energy more efficiently to producers providing more low-carbon forms of energy.”