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Oil-currencies weaken as crude falls, NZD rallies while TRY sinks

By Piero Cingari

12:00, 18 November 2021

Turkish lira banknotes
Turkish lira sinks on repo rate cut – Photo: Pixabay

Oil-related currencies are the underperformers on Thursday, as US President Joe Biden pushes China, India, Japan and other nations to open their oil reserves to curb global energy prices. Brent prices fell below $80 per barrel.

The Norwegian krone (NOK) was down 0.2% against the US dollar, after seven straight days of losses, and Russian ruble (RUB) lost 0.7%.  USD/CAD is broadly unchanged as elevated consumer inflation in Canada bolstered the case for higher interest rates.

Sterling benefitted from both strong labour and inflation data this week, gaining ground against its peers. Cable (GBP/USD) is up 0.1% from previous close, while EUR/GBP is flat after falling to 0.8385 yesterday.

The kiwi (NZD) is the best performer among the major currencies, up 0.7% against the dollar, as short-term inflation expectations are expected to rise to 2.96% in the fourth quarter adding pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to deliver a rate hike next week.

The euro paused for a breath after six straight sessions of losses against the dollar, with EUR/USD finding a support around 1.1315-1.1320.

Yesterday, the Turkish lira (TRY) tumbled 2.8% hitting new record lows against the dollar, after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan once again expressed his willingness to fight high interest rates "to the end" to reduce pain in the population, just a day before the meeting of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT). Today, the CBT cut interest rates by 100 basis points, or 1%, to 15%, in line with market expectations. Lira weakened again after the decision. 

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Forex Daily Matrix – 18 November 2021

A forex table that compares nine major currencies against each other, including USD, EUR, GBY, JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD and NOKForex daily matrix as of 17 November 2021, 11:00 GMT – Credit:

US dollar

As of this writing, the US Dollar index (DXY) was last at 95.68, down 0.1% from the previous close.

Elevated US inflation and expectations on monetary policy normalisation remain the key driving factor behind the recent strength of the US dollar against other major currencies.

Money markets currently assign a 64% chance the US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates in June next year.

Yesterday, US Federal Open Market Committee member Charles Evans said inflation could last longer than expected but a strong labour market will keep the economic outlook optimistic.

On the nomination of a Fed Chair, the White House announced that Biden would make his decision in the days before the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

A reappointment of Chair Jerome Powell is still the most likely outcome (60%) according to online forecasts market (, but his margin is narrowing against Fed Governor Lael Brainard (40%) who is seen as a more dovish chair by the market.


1.09 Price
-0.280% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0099%
Short position overnight fee 0.0017%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00006


1.27 Price
-0.240% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0047%
Short position overnight fee -0.0035%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00013


0.66 Price
-0.070% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0073%
Short position overnight fee -0.0009%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00006


147.39 Price
+0.120% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee 0.0124%
Short position overnight fee -0.0206%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.010

DXY technical levels:

  • 52-week high: 96.18
  • 52-week low: 89.212
  • 50-day moving average: 93.92
  • 200-day moving average: 92.21
  • 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): 68.72

Chart of the day: Turkish Lira tumbled as interest rates fall way below inflation

A chart showing how the turkish lira has been negatively affected by lower interest rates and rising inflationUSD/TRY Chart and Turkey interest rate and inflation rate – Credit:

British pound

GBP/USD was last at 1.3492 in London midday trading, up 0.1% from previous close, while EUR/GBP traded unchanged at 0.8395.

The British pound continues to remain supported by elevated inflation in the country and a strong recovery in the labour market, which raise the probabilities of a first Bank of England interest rate hike in December.

Money markets are now fully pricing in a 15bps hike next month, according to the latest CME BoE Watch.

GBP/USD technical levels.

  • 52-week high: 1.4248
  • 52-week low: 1.3107
  • 50-day moving average: 1.3645
  • 200-day moving average: 1.3837
  • 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): 43.85


The euro was up 0.14% to 1.1332 against the US dollar, after posting six straight sessions of losses.

Short-term yield differentials between the US and the German bond market remain the dominant driver of EUR/USD as shown previously.

Yesterday, the eurozone inflation rate print was not severe as elsewhere, rising to 4.1% year-on-year in October but matching market expectations.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that Germany is in the midst of a "dramatic" fourth Covid-19 wave, with daily infections reaching a new high.

On the technical front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator for EUR/USD continues to hover in the oversold area (below 30) on the daily timeframe chart..

EUR/USD technical levels:

  • 52-week high: 1.2349
  • 52-week low: 1.1265
  • 50-day moving average: 1.1614
  • 200-day moving average: 1.1866
  • 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): 28.66

Forex Performance Heatmap – 18 November 2021

Forex performance heatmap comparing major forex currency pairs, the euro and the dollar with other currenciesForex performance heatmap as of 18 November 2021, 11:00 GMT – Credit:

Other currency pairs (% change from previous close):

Markets in this article

0.66130 USD
-0.00047 -0.070%
Oil - Brent
Brent Oil
83.940 USD
1.409 +1.710%
380.483 USD
2.486 +0.660%
11.71343 USD
0.02374 +0.200%
4.34940 USD
0.00561 +0.130%

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The main difference between CFD trading and trading assets, such as commodities and stocks, is that you don’t own the underlying asset when you trade on a CFD.
You can still benefit if the market moves in your favour, or make a loss if it moves against you. However, with traditional trading you enter a contract to exchange the legal ownership of the individual shares or the commodities for money, and you own this until you sell it again.
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CFDs attract overnight costs to hold the trades (unless you use 1-1 leverage), which makes them more suited to short-term trading opportunities. Stocks and commodities are more normally bought and held for longer. You might also pay a broker commission or fees when buying and selling assets direct and you’d need somewhere to store them safely.
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