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Numeraire price prediction: Can it sustain the momentum?

By Capital.com Research Team

09:23, 22 July 2022

The Numeraire logo in a group of bubbles
NMR is rewarded to developers for designing an accurate prediction model – Photo: Vladimir Kazakov / Shutterstock

Numerai is harnessing a community of developers to build stock market predictions and create an artificial intelligence (AI) hedge fund. To encourage innovation, it has formatted this as a tournament. The more accurate your prediction is, the larger the bounty.

The ‘hardest data science tournament on the planet’

Numerai, the quant hedge fund, is running a tournament for developers to create the most accurate stock market prediction tool, using a cryptocurrency called numeraire. The hedge fund is then making investment calls from these competitions.

At the centre of the tournament is a free dataset that every developer has access to. This is made up of financial data, which is “cleaned and regularised and obfuscated”. Developers are then tasked with creating a model that makes predictions based on this data.

The tournament document says: 

“The models ventured for the tournament allow Numerai to actively participate in stock market trading based on the results revealed by participating projects. This innovative approach to stock trading makes Numerai one of the few hedge funds to rely significantly on AI-generated data predictions.”

A new round of this competition starts every Saturday, when a new data set is released. Participants are required to work over the weekend and submit the predictions on Monday at 14:30 UTC.

Numerai was founded by Richard Craib, who is also the acting chief executive. Craib, who is not based in San Francisco, studied at the University of Cape Town, Cornell University and UC Berkeley. 

What is Numeraire (NMR)?

Numeraire (NMR) is the token used throughout the tournament and is claimed to be the first cryptocurrency designed by a hedge fund. Developers must stake NMR to take part in the tournaments but must be prepared to lose tokens if their predictions are wrong.

The more an individual stakes and the more accurate prediction, a larger amount of NMR tokens can be earned. But a wrong prediction will result in a portion of your staked tokens being destroyed.

NMR’s past performance

NMR price chart

Source: CoinMarketCap

Numeraire’s price history traces back to its launch on 21 June 2017. Four days after going live, it rocketed to its all-time high of $168.49. But it was not able to sustain these gains and soon plummeted below its launch price,  falling to a low of $8.62 in early November.

While the token has not been able to return to its listing price, it has experienced peaks and troughs. A rally occurred late November after changes to the tournament structure. These included changing the period of the rounds to the weekend.

NMR continued this momentum into the following months and reached a high of $59.53 on 8 January 2018. But the bear market that year saw Numeraire eventually fall victim to a depreciating trend. The token fell to its all-time low of $1.93 on 26 November. 

XRP/USD

0.63 Price
+6.420% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0753%
Short position overnight fee 0.0069%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.01168

BCH/USD

376.85 Price
-2.900% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0753%
Short position overnight fee 0.0069%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 2.50

DOGE/USD

0.12 Price
-2.060% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0753%
Short position overnight fee 0.0069%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.0012872

ETH/USD

3,418.73 Price
-0.750% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0616%
Short position overnight fee 0.0137%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 6.00

The cryptocurrency’s next breakout took place in August 2020. This was after developers were given the opportunity to choose from other cryptocurrencies to have their rewards paid in, including Bitcoin. Later that month, Coinbase (COIN) added support for NMR and its value reached a high of $66.39.

Numerai’s native token climbed even further with the bull market at the start of 2021. It implemented a new update in April that, among other new features, automated the process for developers. NMR reached a four-year high of $93.10 on 17 April. 

After a consolidation period, NMR rallied again in September after the “biggest ever upgrade to the Numerai dataset”. However, it could only reach a high of $62.21 that month.

Since then, Numeraire has been struggling, falling below $30 in January 2022. NMR continued depreciating, dropping to a two-year low of $7.58 on 18 June. It has recovered slightly and at the time of writing, on 21 July, was trading at $21.39.

Numeraire price predictions

The NMR price prediction from forecasters expected the cryptocurrency to sustain these gains and continue climbing. DigitalCoinPrice’s Numeraire coin price prediction said it could reach $25.47 this year and $36.47 in 2025. By the next decade, its Numeraire price prediction for 2030 said it could come close to $90.

Although PricePrediction said NMR could only average out $15.80 this year, its long-term forecast was even more bullish. Its Numeriare price prediction for 2025 suggested it might have a maximum price of $53. It then suggested the coin could pass $100 in 2027 and $300 in 2030.

 The forecast from TechNewsLeader is along the same lines. Its Numeraire price prediction for 2022 said the cryptocurrency could surge to a maximum price of $24.44 in a year. The token could then hit $56.32 in 2025 and $309 in 2030, it suggested.

CaptainAltcoin’s Numeraire crypto price prediction suggested it would come close to $40 in 2025. It said: “Our forecasting model sees Numeraire reaching $97.54 in 2030.”

When considering a NMR token price prediction, it’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets remain extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin or token’s price will be in a few hours, and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and algorithm-based forecasters can and do get their predictions wrong.

If you are considering investing in cryptocurrency tokens, we recommend that you always do your own research. Look at the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinion before making any investment decision. Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. And never trade with money that you cannot afford to lose.

FAQs

How many Numeraire are there?

There is a circulating supply of 5.8 million NMR, out of a total supply of 11 million tokens.

Is Numeraire a good investment?

In volatile cryptocurrency markets, it is important to do your own research on a coin or token to determine if it is a good fit for your investment portfolio. Whether the NMR token is a suitable investment for you depends on your risk tolerance and how much you intend to invest, among other factors. Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. And never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

Will Numeraire go up?

Cryptocurrencies can be extremely volatile and prices can go down just as easily as they can go up. Analysts and algorithm-based forecasters can and do get their predictions wrong. Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Always do your own research. And never invest what you cannot afford to lose.

Should I invest in Numeraire?

This is something that you will have to decide for yourself. Before you do so, you will need to do your own research. Remember prices can go down as well as up. Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. And never invest what you cannot afford to lose.

 

Markets in this article

COIN
Coinbase Global Inc (Extended Hours)
247.76 USD
-2.97 -1.190%

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