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Lanvin Group stock forecast: LANV shares surge in NY debut, boosting luxury group’s parent Fosun

By Rob Griffin

Edited by Jekaterina Drozdovica

09:09, 20 December 2022

Lanvin Group stock forecast
Lanvin Group Holdings debuted on NYSE on 16 December 2022 via a SPAC merger with Primavera Capital Acquisition Corporation. – Photo: Shutterstock; Casimiro PT

Luxury fashion group Lanvin (LANV) endured a rollercoaster debut on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)  but is focused on growing its portfolio of brands.

The China-based business saw its stock price more than double within hours from $10.20 to $22.81, ending its first day of trading - 15 December - down at $7.63. Meanwhile, Lanvin's parent company Fosun International (0656) saw its shares fall slightly on the day of Lanvin's floatation, yet rising over 4% a day later. 

Fosun International (0656) live stock price

What's next for Lanvin, which manages an impressive line-up of popular brands, including Lanvin and Italian shoemaker Sergio Rossi? Will LANV stock end the 2022 on a high or will broader economic concerns act as a dampener on performance as we approach the new year?

In this Lanvin Group stock forecast, we take a look at the business, assess its prospects, and outline the views of analysts.

What is Lanvin Group?

Lanvin group was founded in 2017 by Fosun International Limited to capitalise on the growing global demand for luxury fashion.

Fosun is a consumer group co-founded by Chinese businessman and investor Guo Guangchang. It listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) in 2007 and trades under the ticker 00656.HK.

The Lanvin Group rebranded from Fosun Fashion Group in October 2021 to align it more with Lanvin’s entrepreneurial creator, Jeanne Lanvin.

Its portfolio of brands include the flagship Lanvin, which was originally founded in Paris by Jeanne Lanvin in the late 1800s.

There’s also Italian shoemaker Sergio Rossi, Austrian skinwear specialist Wolford, US womenswear brand St. John and Caruso, which specialises in high-end menswear. 

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Lanvin Group’s flotation

A key point in our Lanvin Group stock forecast was the business beginning to trade on the NYSE on 15 December 2022 under the ticker LANV.

It was made possible by the merger of Lanvin with Primavera Capital Acquisition Corporation, a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC).

According to Ms. Joann Cheng, Lanvin’s chairman and chief executive, going public was “a natural step” for the group. “We have built an iconic portfolio of heritage brands and recorded strong growth over recent years,” she said.

The company’s strategy is to drive “continuous organic growth” through geographic, channel and product expansion for its brands, combined with “disciplined investment” in the luxury fashion sector.

“Against a background of proven resilience in the luxury market, we are confident that this strategy will enable us to deliver sustained long-term growth and value for our shareholders,” she added.

LANV price analysis

Any LANV stock forecast must consider that it’s very early days. The LANV stock price initially enjoyed a spectacular debut on the NYSE on 15 December 2022.

Within hours it had more than doubled from $10.20 to $22.81 after the high profile listing caught the imagination of investors.

The LANV stock price then gradually slipped during the course of its first day of trading and ended up closing down at $7.63.

Lanvin Group stock price

The following day, however, was better. The stock opened at $9.74 and ended its second day as a quoted business at $10. This represented a 31% increase over the previous day’s close.

The Lanvin flotation has been positive for Fosun stock, which had risen 10.7% to HK$6.2 over the past month to market close on 16 December 2022.

Latest earnings report

The company’s most recently published results for the six months to the end of June 2022 showed a 73% year-on-year revenue increase of €202m ($214m).

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In a statement, Ms. Joann Cheng, Lanvin’s chairman and chief executive, said the group “continues to deliver on its strategy”, with record first half results and momentum continuing to build.

The company said its performance in the first half of 2022 was marked by an “exceptional phase of growth”, building on the strong momentum achieved in 2021.

Lanvin’s revenue was fuelled by “outstanding growth in Europe and North America”, where revenue grew 91% and 58% year-over-year respectively.

It declared this to be a testament to the group’s solid foundation in its five brands’ home turf and the success of its global growth strategies. It added:

“Notwithstanding the impact of COVID-19 restrictions in Greater China for much of the period, sales in the market increased by 32% year-over-year, while sales in the rest of Asia grew 194% year-over-year as the brands continued to penetrate new high-potential markets.”

It’s also worth bearing in mind the current outlook when considering the Lanvin Group stock forecast for 2023.

As far as the LANV stock forecast for the next 12 months is concerned, the company’s management believes consumer appetite for premium quality goods remains strong and resilient.

“The group will continue to execute its proven strategies to deliver sustained growth and create long-term value for shareholders against ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties,” it stated.

What other news is driving the LANV share price?

Our Lanvin Group share price forecast needs to bear in mind wider demand. On this point there appears to be some optimistic news.

The global luxury market was projected to grow by 21% this year, reaching a market value of €1.4trn, according to the Bain & Company–Altagamma Luxury Study.

The report predicted further expansion in sales and market value for such goods over the coming year and decade – despite the expected recessionary conditions.

Claudia D’Arpizio, lead author of the study, said: 

“The nouvelle vague – the new wave – of the luxury goods market will demand evolution amid disruption, adaptation amid uncertainty, and an expansion of creativity in all of the basics – all while new trends and concepts develop.” 

LANV stock forecast: What do the analysts expect?

What are analysts’ Lanvin Group stock predictions? Danni Hewson, financial analyst at AJ Bell, told Capital.com that people remained concerned about the wider economic environment

“Lanvin’s bosses are hoping to take advantage of a resilient high end consumer but despite initial excitement at the stocks New York debut investors are still running scared of retail,” she said.

Hewson pointed out that the sector had been “battered by a scorching hot inflationary environment” and a landscape that is still shifting post-Covid, adding:

“The way people shop has changed creating a major headache for those trend spotters and despite the fact there is a whole lot less competition around following a spate of big name collapses it’s still a brutal arena and a tough one to dominate.”

However, she also acknowledged that there were positives:

“Lanvin has a nice chunk of cash to play with and momentum will generate excitement as it opens new stores around the world,” she said. “Don’t expect immediate success and don’t expect big share price gains with so much geo-political uncertainty, not least about China’s reopening.”

Elsewhere, Jay R Ritter, eminent scholar at the Warrington College of Business at the University of Florida, raised concerns.

In a Lanvin Group stock forecast, he warned that swings in supply and demand could “push the price around”, as there were so few shares of the company available for public trading. He added:

“Investors are looking at this and don’t have a lot of confidence that Lanvin is going to be a successful company.”

This makes it difficult to accurately predict a Lanvin Group stock forecast for 2025. The company’s prospects could depend on its own performance and the wider economic backdrop.

Final thoughts

Note that analysts’ Lanvin Group stock predictions may be wrong and shouldn’t be used as substitutes for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before trading, looking at the latest news, technical and fundamental analysis, and a wide range of analyst commentary. 

Remember, past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade more money than you can afford to lose.

FAQs

Is Lanvin Group a good stock to buy?

Whether Lanvin Group is a good stock for you to buy should depend on your opinion of the company and your own investment objectives. Remember, it’s very important to reach your own conclusion of the company’s prospects and likelihood of achieving analysts’ targets. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade more money than you can afford to lose.

Will Lanvin Group stock go up or down?

No-one knows for sure and it’s also very early days for LANV stock. On its first day of trading – 15 December, 2022 – it initially doubled in value before closing down below its opening price.

Should I invest in Lanvin Group stock?

That is down to your view of the company and its future prospects. You will need to draw your own conclusions and not rely solely on the views of analysts. Your long-term investment goals and attitude to risk must play a part in your decision. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade more money than you can afford to lose.

Markets in this article

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-0.05 -1.220%

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