CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
US English

Forex news: EUR/USD hits 1.115 after ceasefire talks

By Piero Cingari

08:41, 30 March 2022

EUR/USD movements on a computer screen
Following ‘constructive’ talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine, the EUR gained ground versus USD – Photo: Shutterstock

The US dollar melted yesterday as risk-on mood resurfaced after the conclusion of “constructive” talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul.

The talks, aimed at de-escalating the war, ended with Moscow stating that it will drastically decrease military activity near Kyiv and Chernihiv. “Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity must be guaranteed,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a video message on Tuesday.

NATO allies are now debating whether Russia’s commitment to reduce military operations in Ukraine represents a watershed moment in the war or just a tactical move.

Meanwhile, the spectres of stagflation in Europe are reappearing, with inflation in Spain much higher (9.8% year-on-year) in March than projected (8%) ahead of Germany’s inflation data due out today.

The euro (EUR) gained ground versus the dollar, breaking over the $1.11 barrier yesterday and hitting $1.115 this morning, helped by a rebound in risk sentiment amid progress in ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine, and rising speculations of an European Central Bank (ECB) rate rise to tackle rising inflation.

AUD/USD_zero

0.66 Price
-0.390% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0072%
Short position overnight fee -0.0011%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00050

GBP/USD

1.26 Price
-0.380% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0046%
Short position overnight fee -0.0036%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00130

AUD/USD

0.66 Price
-0.390% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0072%
Short position overnight fee -0.0011%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00050

EUR/USD

1.08 Price
-0.300% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0080%
Short position overnight fee -0.0003%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00050

The British pound (GBP) welcomed the ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine, as did the Japanese yen (JPY), which rebounded in the past two days after dropping for weeks.

The US yield curve is in the spotlight, after yesterday’s spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield hit parity, dangerously close to the reversal point.

Today’s market attention will be on German inflation statistics, with the consensus expecting a 6.3% rise on the year, and Euro Area confidence indicators. The ADP private employment report will be the focus in the US.

What is your sentiment on USD/CAD?

1.35873
Bullish
or
Bearish
Vote to see Traders sentiment!

Chart of the day: EUR and JPY rallied after peace talks 

A chart showing EUR and JPY gains vs USD after peace talks EUR and JPY gained ground against the USD following peace talks – Credit: Capital.com / Source: Tradingview

Forex markets today – 30 March 2022

  • In London’s morning trading, the US Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled to 97.90, down by 0.6% on the day. The euro (EUR) rose to $1.115, up 0.6% today, after gaining 1% yesterday. The British pound (GBP) rose 0.4% to $1.314.  
  • Low-yielding, safe-haven currencies gained ground versus the dollar. The Japanese yen (JPY) is the best performing G-10 currency today, strengthening by 1% versus the USD. The Swiss franc (CHF) rose 0.7%. 
  • Oil-linked currencies remain well-supported thanks to the strong pick up in risk sentiment. The Canadian dollar’s (CAD) edged 0.2% higher. The Norwegian krone (NOK) appreciated 0.4% versus the USD. 
  • The commodity-sensitive Australian dollar (AUD) was slightly up (0.1%), while the high-beta New Zealand dollar (NZD) gained 0.6%. 
  • Central Eastern European (CEE) currencies strongly recovered yesterday. The Polish zloty (PLN), the Czech koruna (CZK) and the Hungarian forint (HUF) are stable against the EUR today. 
  • The Russian rouble (RUB) rallied substantially yesterday, gaining as much as 7% versus the USD. 
  • Emerging market (EM) currencies were broadly in the green. The South African rand (ZAR) and the Mexican peso (MXN) gained 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively. In Asia, the Korean won (KRW) slipped by 0.2% while the Chinese yuan (CNH) strengthened 0.3%. The Turkish lira (TRY) lost 0.6%. 

Major currencies: Top risers and fallers today – 30 March 2022

A forex table that compares nine major currencies against each other, including USD, EUR, GBY, JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD and NOKMajor currencies: Today’s top risers and fallers, 30 March 2022, 10:00 UTC – Credit: Capital.com

Forex market heatmap – 30 March 2022

A forex table showing the performance of US dollar and the euro against other currenciesForex market heatmap as of 30 March 2022, 10:00 UTC – Credit: Capital.com

USD, EUR, GBP snapshot – 30 March 2022

  • Expectations of Fed rate hikes saw a slight step back yesterday after the US yield curve (10-2 year spread) came dangerously close to inversion. The market is now pricing in a 64% chance of a 50 basis point (bp) hike at the Federal Reserve meeting in May, compared with a 70% probability earlier in the week, according to the latest CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

  • The ADP employment data for March will be released today in the US, with the market anticipating a 450 thousand gain in the number of employees, from 475 thousand in February. Values that are in line with or above the projected number indicate a positive trend in the US job market, and might bolster expectations for faster Federal Reserve rate hikes. 

  • The German inflation figure for March is due today and it could represent a market-moving event for the euro. The market expects German inflation to rise 6.3% year-on-year in March, up from 5.1% in February. If inflation in Germany were to surprise on the upside, as happened this morning in Spain, the market could significantly start to price in a faster normalisation of the ECB’s monetary policy, supporting the euro rate-differential angle against the dollar.

  • In the UK, expectations of Bank of England rate hikes have lingered materially after comments by Governor Andrew Bailey, who pointed to growing uncertainties for the economic outlook. The 2-year yield on gilts contracted significantly to 1.33% from 1.5% at the beginning of the week. The 10-year yields on gilts also fell to 1.6% from 1.75% over three days.

EUR/USD technical levels

  • 52-week high: 1.2266
  • 52-week low: 1.083
  • 50-day moving average (one-day chart): 1.1186
  • 200-day moving average (one-day chart): 1.1497
  • 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) (one-day chart): 45

GBP/USD technical levels

  • 52-week high: 1.4248
  • 52-week low: 1.2998
  • 50-day moving average (one-day chart): 1.3372
  • 200-day moving average (one-day chart): 1.3570
  • 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) (one-day chart): 43

Markets in this article

AUD/USD
AUD/USD
0.65808 USD
-0.00255 -0.390%
EUR/HUF
EUR/HUF
382.051 USD
-2.447 -0.640%
EUR/NOK
EUR/NOK
11.75614 USD
0.00246 +0.020%
EUR/PLN
EUR/PLN
4.34052 USD
0.00029 +0.010%
EUR/USD
EUR/USD
1.07651 USD
-0.00325 -0.300%

Rate this article

Related reading

Capital Com is an execution-only service provider. The material provided on this website is for information purposes only and should not be understood as an investment advice. Any opinion that may be provided on this page does not constitute a recommendation by Capital Com or its agents. We do not make any representations or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the information that is provided on this page. If you rely on the information on this page then you do so entirely on your own risk.

Still looking for a broker you can trust?

Join the 570.000+ traders worldwide that chose to trade with Capital.com

1. Create & verify your account 2. Make your first deposit 3. You’re all set. Start trading