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Forex: dollar eases amid US rates rally; JPY rebounds

By Piero Cingari

09:39, 9 November 2021

Japanese yen and US dollar bank notes
Japanese yen and US dollar bank notes – Photo: Shutterstock

The US dollar (DXY) eased alongside a fall in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year benchmark now yielding below 1.5%.

EUR/USD stands at 1.1587, flat on the day, while the Japanese yen is outperforming all its major counterparts, with USD/JPY breaking to the downside of the 113 level.
The cable (GBP/USD) gains 0.25%, while the Swiss franc (CHF) continues to edge lower. The Kiwi (NZD) and Aussie (AUD) both weakened amid softer commodity prices.

Elsewhere, emerging market currencies are quiet this morning, except for the Turkish lira (TRY), down 0.5% against the greenback, not far from its record low of 9.85.

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Forex Daily Matrix – 9 November 2021

Forex daily matrixForex Daily Matrix as of 9 November 2021, 10:00 UTC – Source:

US dollar

As of the time of writing (9 November 2021, 10:00 UTC), the US Dollar index (DXY) was at the 93.84 level, down 0.1% for the day.

The Fed’s vice chair Richard Clarida spoke yesterday at a Brookings Institution seminar, emphasising that inflation this year is much above his overshoot threshold and reiterating a rate hike in 2022 and six or seven hikes throughout 2024.

Markets are now pricing a 56% chance, down from 60% last week, that the Fed starts hiking the interest rate in June next year.

Today, the US economic calendar is very light. We will have the October release of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business optimism as well as October’s Producer Price Index, which are expected to stay high, at 8.6% on the year, due to supply-chain bottlenecks and rising energy prices.

Tomorrow, the key market event is October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Consensus expects US Headline CPI to rise 0.6% in October from a month earlier, and core CPI – which excludes energy and food items – by 0.3%.

DXY technical levels:

  • 52-week high: 94.58
  • 52-week low: 89.212
  • 50-day moving average: 93.497
  • 200-day moving average: 92.047
  • 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): 51.93

Chart of the day: EUR/USD closely correlated with Germany/US two-year yield spread

EUR/USD chart versus German/US yield spreadEUR/USD and Germany/US two-year yield spread – Credit: Koyfin


As of the time of writing, the euro is almost unchanged on the day versus the US dollar (EUR/USD), while it loses 0.23% against the British pound (EUR/GBP).


0.64 Price
-0.560% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0077%
Short position overnight fee -0.0005%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00006


0.64 Price
-0.560% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0077%
Short position overnight fee -0.0005%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00006


1.21 Price
-0.120% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0047%
Short position overnight fee -0.0035%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00013


1.05 Price
-0.550% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0081%
Short position overnight fee -0.0002%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00006

The European Central Banks’s chief economist Philip Lane was dovish again yesterday, at an interview with El País, reiterating that inflation is expected to fall next year and the ongoing price pressures are “not a sign of a chronic situation”.

On the data front, the Sentix index, which measures sentiment among eurozone investors and investment analysts, rose by 1.4 points to 18.3 in October, above consensus estimates (15.0).

Today, November’s ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany is expected to fall to 20 from 22.3 in October.

EUR/USD technical levels:

  • 52-week high: 1.2349
  • 52-week low: 1.1511
  • 50-day moving average: 1.1668
  • 200-day moving average: 1.1884
  • 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): 47.14

British pound

GBP/USD appreciated 0.2% to 1.3585 as of the time of writing.

Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey, speaking during an online Q&A session yesterday, said that the BoE “would and will have to act” when inflation becomes generalised in the economy.

Bailey, who in previous weeks had leaked his propensity to raise interest rates on several occasions, voted in favour of keeping rates unchanged in the BoE’s decision last week.

GBP/USD technical levels:

  • 52-week high: 1.4248
  • 52-week low: 1.2901
  • 50-day moving average: 1.3689
  • 200-day moving average: 1.3844
  • 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI): 45.21

Forex Performance Heatmap – 9 November 2021

Forex Performance HeatmapForex Performance Heatmap as of 9 November 2021 10:00 UTC – Source:

Other currency pairs (daily % change):

The day ahead:

  • 10:00 UTC Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index – November: 20 (consensus); 22.3 (previous)
  • 11:00 UTC US NFIB Business Optimism Index – October: 99.1 (previous)
  • 13:00 UTC ECB’s president Lagarde speech
  • 13:30 UTC US PPI – October: +0.6% m/m (consensus), +0.5% m/m (prior)
  • 16:00 UTC BoE’s governor Andrew Bailey speech
  • 16:35 UTC Fed’s Mary Daly speech

Read more: Yen, emerging Asian FX gain amid US dollar’s slip


Markets in this article

0.63650 USD
-0.00355 -0.560%
11.29470 USD
-0.14655 -1.280%
11.61688 USD
0.00291 +0.030%
1.05162 USD
-0.00578 -0.550%
1.21452 USD
-0.00142 -0.120%

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The main difference between CFD trading and trading assets, such as commodities and stocks, is that you don’t own the underlying asset when you trade on a CFD.
You can still benefit if the market moves in your favour, or make a loss if it moves against you. However, with traditional trading you enter a contract to exchange the legal ownership of the individual shares or the commodities for money, and you own this until you sell it again.
CFDs are leveraged products, which means that you only need to deposit a percentage of the full value of the CFD trade in order to open a position. But with traditional trading, you buy the assets for the full amount. In the UK, there is no stamp duty on CFD trading, but there is when you buy stocks, for example.
CFDs attract overnight costs to hold the trades (unless you use 1-1 leverage), which makes them more suited to short-term trading opportunities. Stocks and commodities are more normally bought and held for longer. You might also pay a broker commission or fees when buying and selling assets direct and you’d need somewhere to store them safely.
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