US natgas prices rise 4% to 4-month high on colder outlook
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Nov 12 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures jumped about 4% to a four-month high on Thursday on forecasts for seasonally colder weather and higher heating demand, near-record liquefied natural gas exports and a decline in output in recent weeks.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 12.5 cents, or 4%, to settle at $3.34 per million British thermal units, their highest close since June 25.
That price gain also pushed the front-month back into technically overbought territory for the third time in four trading sessions.
In addition to higher demand and lower output, analysts noted that some of this week's 11% gain was due to short-covering. Last week, speculators boosted their net short futures and options positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange to the highest since March 2020, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states fell to 112.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, down from 113.4 bcfd in October and the monthly record high of 115 bcfd in August.
Record US output early in the year and mostly mild weather in the spring and autumn have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in storage above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March. The surplus reached a high of 7.7% above normal in April.
A hotter-than-normal summer forced energy firms to pull more gas from storage than usual to fuel power plants to keep air conditioners running. This cut the surplus to just 1% above normal in mid-October. About 40% of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
The return of mild weather and lower-than-usual demand in recent weeks have left more gas available for energy firms to inject into storage.
The amount of gas in storage likely climbed to 2.1% above normal during the week ended November 6, up from 1.4% above normal in the previous week, according to analyst estimates ahead of Friday's weekly federal inventory report. The inventory report was delayed from Thursday to Friday for the US Veterans Day holiday on November 11. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking ahead, meteorologists predicted that weather across the country would remain near normal through November 27, keeping heating demand near usual levels for this time of year.
Still, with the weather turning seasonally colder as winter approaches, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 114.8 bcfd this week to 124.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants rose to 18.9 bcfd so far in November, up from 18.2 bcfd in October and on track to beat the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Week ended Nov 6 Forecast | Week ended Oct 30 Actual | Year ago Nov 6 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Nov 6 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +66 | +77 | +44 | +40 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,867 | 3,801 | 3,954 | 3,787 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +2.1% | +1.4% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.28 | 3.22 | 4.47 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 29.21 | 28.26 | 10.40 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 31.33 | 31.34 | 11.25 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 286 | 281 | 212 | 239 | 291 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 5 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 9 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 291 | 288 | 229 | 257 | 300 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 112.7 | 113.0 | 113.2 | 109.3 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 7.6 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 120.2 | 121.4 | 120.6 | 118.1 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 18.8 | 19.7 | 19.4 | 18.2 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 8.0 | 9.8 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 8.7 | 12.7 | 19.3 | 17.4 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 32.4 | 32.3 | 30.2 | 30.8 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 22.8 | 23.6 | 24.6 | 24.0 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 79.7 | 86.5 | 95.8 | 93.2 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 107.5 | 114.8 | 124.1 | 120.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 80 | 80 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 75 | 76 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 76 | 76 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 13 | Week ended Nov 6 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 9 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 42 | 42 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 16 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.79 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.35 | 1.35 | 3.38 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.84 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.64 | 1.64 | 3.28 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.45 | 2.45 | 3.48 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.94 | 1.94 | 4.58 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.89 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 2.14 | 2.14 | 0.26 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.56 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 56.30 | 51.19 | 65.85 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 121.21 | 78.83 | 59.39 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 43.33 | 43.33 | 43.45 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 25.12 | 25.12 | 34.57 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 33.43 | 33.43 | 38.42 | 28.44 | 53.02 |