US natural gas prices rise 2% with LNG feedgas flows on track for daily record high
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures climbed about 2% to a two-week high on Friday on forecasts for cooler weather in late November, record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and a drop in output in recent weeks.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.1 cents, or 2%, to settle at $2.998 per million British thermal units, their highest close since October 19.
For the week, the front month gained about 3% after jumping about 10% last week.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states fell to 111.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, down from 113.4 bcfd in October and a monthly record high of 115 bcfd in August.
Record output and mostly mild weather in the spring and autumn have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March, with the level reaching a high of 7.7% above normal in April.
A hotter-than-normal summer, however, forced energy firms to pull more gas from storage than usual to fuel power plants needed to keep air conditioners humming, cutting the inventory surplus to just 1% above normal in mid-October. About 40% of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
The return of mild weather and lower-than-usual demand in recent weeks have allowed energy firms to add more gas to storage.
The amount of gas in storage likely climbed to 2.1% above normal during the week ended November 6, up from 1.4% above normal in the previous week, according to analyst estimates ahead of next Thursday's weekly federal inventory report. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
MILD WEATHER, RECORD LNG FEEDGAS
Looking ahead, meteorologists predicted weather across the country would remain warmer than normal through November 21, which should keep heating demand lower than usual in coming weeks.
Still, with seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 107.3 bcfd this week to 114.0 bcfd next week and 118.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants rose to 18.8 bcfd so far in November, up from 18.4 bcfd in October and on track to tie the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to reach a record 19.79 bcfd on Friday, just topping the current all-time daily high of 19.78 bcfd on October 18.
Week ended Nov 6 Forecast | Week ended Oct 30 Actual | Year ago Nov 6 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Nov 6 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +66 | +77 | +44 | +40 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,867 | 3,801 | 3,954 | 3,787 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +2.1% | +1.4% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.01 | 2.95 | 4.47 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 28.66 | 29.46 | 10.40 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 31.57 | 31.62 | 11.25 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 210 | 198 | 212 | 239 | 261 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 12 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 225 | 214 | 229 | 257 | 273 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 114.8 | 112.4 | 111.9 | 109.3 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 121.7 | 120.0 | 119.7 | 118.1 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 6.7 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 19.1 | 18.8 | 19.7 | 18.2 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 7.6 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 7.8 | 8.6 | 12.7 | 17.4 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 32.3 | 32.4 | 30.8 | 30.8 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 22.7 | 22.8 | 23.6 | 24.0 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 78.4 | 79.4 | 85.1 | 93.2 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 106.6 | 107.3 | 114.0 | 120.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 84 | 83 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 78 | 78 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 79 | 79 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 6 | Week ended Oct 30 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 41 | 41 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 15 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.63 | 2.61 | 3.79 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.23 | 1.03 | 3.38 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.50 | 3.37 | 3.84 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.15 | 1.03 | 3.28 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.18 | 1.70 | 3.48 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.35 | 1.31 | 4.58 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.43 | 3.50 | 3.89 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.57 | 1.12 | 0.26 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.06 | 1.04 | 1.56 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 47.09 | 49.38 | 65.85 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 71.04 | 77.15 | 59.39 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 36.89 | 39.79 | 43.45 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 35.26 | 34.48 | 34.57 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 33.05 | 33.80 | 38.42 | 28.44 | 53.02 |