US natural gas prices fall 4% on mild weather and lower demand view
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures fell about 4% to a one-week low on Friday on continued mild weather, lowered demand forecasts and a small increase in output in recent days.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12 cents, or 4%, to settle at $3.116 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since October 6.
That also put the contract down about 3% this week after it gained about 6% last week.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September to 110.8 bcfd so far in October. The average so far in October was slightly higher than on Thursday.
That drop in output so far in October was due to a combination of Gulf of Mexico shut-ins from Hurricane Isaias and force majeure incidents and other problems on pipelines in Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and elsewhere in recent weeks.
With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 103.87 bcfd this week to 106.8 bcfd over the next two weeks. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday, while the forecast for next week was higher.
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants slid to 17.6 bcfd so far in October, down from 17.9 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise to a five-month high of 18.9 bcfd on Friday with flows to Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana at a four-month high of 4.8 bcfd and flows to the first 0.8-bcfd liquefaction train at ExxonMobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass plant in Texas up to a record 0.7 bcfd.
LNG export plants often pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG since they use some of that gas to fuel liquefaction and other equipment.
Around the world, gas traded at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the US-Israeli war with Iran this year.
Prices in the US, however, have not reacted much to the war in Iran because the US produces all the gas it consumes domestically and US LNG companies are already liquefying as much fuel as they can.
No matter how high global gas prices go, the US cannot export much more LNG until units under construction enter service in coming months and years.
Week ended Oct 16 Actual | Week ended Oct 9 Actual | Year ago Oct 16 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 16 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +78 | +67 | +86 | +87 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,645 | 3,567 | 3,796 | 3,609 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +1.0% | +1.3% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.18 | 3.24 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 29.03 | 28.50 | 10.88 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 29.34 | 26.53 | 11.11 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 135 | 126 | 116 | 128 | 160 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 28 | 39 | 44 | 47 | 30 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 163 | 165 | 160 | 175 | 190 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 111.1 | 110.1 | 110.9 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 118.1 | 117.3 | 118.4 | 114.0 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 17.0 | 18.4 | 19.0 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 5.8 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 5.1 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 38.7 | 34.8 | 30.7 | 33.4 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 22.4 | 22.3 | 23.3 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 79.8 | 76.1 | 78.4 | 79.1 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 106.5 | 103.8 | 106.9 | 104.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 90 | 90 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 85 | 85 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 84 | 85 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 16 | Week ended Oct 9 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 14 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 40 | 44 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 16 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.30 | 3.22 | 3.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.19 | 1.52 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.73 | 3.69 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.09 | 1.44 | 2.12 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.86 | 2.71 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.38 | 1.65 | 2.51 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.64 | 3.67 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.92 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.45 | 1.35 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 45.97 | 42.08 | 44.36 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 92.56 | 82.98 | 57.52 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 44.46 | 52.54 | 45.49 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 24.14 | 24.80 | 26.78 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 37.82 | 29.76 | 27.16 | 28.44 | 53.02 |