US natgas rises more than 7% on colder weather outlook, hits more than 3-week high
By Vedika Thorat
Nov 9 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures rose more than 7% on Monday as forecasts for colder weather and lower production boosted expectations for stronger heating demand, lifting prices to their highest level in three weeks.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 7.3% higher at $3.218 per million British thermal units, after touching their highest level since October 15 earlier in the session.
"The winter season is like the Super Bowl for the natural gas industry ... we haven't seen much in the way of below-normal temperatures ... we're in November. And so no surprise that some cold weather is showing up and the prices are rallying," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president at StoneX.
Traders have been weighing the possibility of colder temperatures later this month, which could boost heating demand and support natural gas prices.
"Last week's slippage in production appears to be encouraging some buying interest that could help to sustain last week's show of support," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has fallen to 112.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 113.4 bcfd in October and a monthly record high of 115.0 bcfd in August.
The amount of gas in storage likely climbed to 2.1% above normal during the week ended November 6, up from 1.4% above normal in the previous week, according to analyst estimates ahead of this week's federal inventory report. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Still, with seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 114.7 bcfd this week to 120.0 bcfd next week.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants have risen to a record 19.3 bcfd so far in November, above the previous monthly record average of 18.4 bcfd in October.
Benchmark Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose on Monday amid forecasts for colder weather, which is expected to increase demand for heating. NG/EU
Week ended Nov 6 Forecast | Week ended Oct 30 Actual | Year ago Nov 6 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Nov 6 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +66 | +77 | +44 | +40 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,867 | 3,801 | 3,954 | 3,787 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +2.1% | +1.4% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.00 | 3.01 | 4.47 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 28.85 | 28.66 | 10.40 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 31.49 | 31.57 | 11.25 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 229 | 210 | 214 | 240 | 237 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 11 | 15 | 19 | 12 | 10 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 240 | 225 | 233 | 252 | 247 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 112.6 | 112.9 | 113.6 | 109.3 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 7.6 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 120.2 | 120.9 | 121.5 | 118.1 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 18.8 | 20.1 | 19.8 | 18.2 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 8.0 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 8.7 | 12.7 | 16.9 | 17.4 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 32.4 | 31.6 | 29.9 | 30.8 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 22.8 | 23.6 | 24.1 | 24.0 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 79.7 | 85.8 | 91.3 | 93.2 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 107.5 | 114.7 | 120.0 | 120.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 82 | 84 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 77 | 78 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 79 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 13 | Week ended Nov 6 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 8 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 43 | 42 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 17 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.60 | 2.63 | 3.79 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.26 | 1.23 | 3.38 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.42 | 3.50 | 3.84 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.34 | 1.15 | 3.28 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.25 | 2.18 | 3.48 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.53 | 1.35 | 4.58 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.40 | 3.43 | 3.89 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.81 | 1.57 | 0.26 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.72 | 1.06 | 1.56 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 47.09 | 47.09 | 65.85 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 73.01 | 71.04 | 59.39 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 44.72 | 36.89 | 43.45 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 38.30 | 35.26 | 34.57 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 40.00 | 33.05 | 38.42 | 28.44 | 53.02 |