US holiday sales growth to speed up as shoppers stay resilient, NRF forecasts

By Reuters News

Oct 15 (Reuters) - US holiday sales growth is expected to accelerate to 4.2% this year, the National Retail Federation said on Thursday, betting that consumers would remain resilient even as major retailers flag spending pressures.

“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.

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Here are some details:

  • Sales during November and December are projected to rise 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, compared with a 3.1% increase to $972 billion last year

  • NRF said its forecast was based on economic modeling that incorporates consumer spending, employment, wages and historical retail sales data. It excludes automobile, gasoline and restaurant sales

  • Higher household costs amid rising inflation have been making shoppers more selective, with retailers including Walmart WMT.O, Kohl's KSS.N and American Eagle AEO.N flagging pressure on consumer spending ahead of the critical holiday period

  • A Deloitte survey of about 4,000 US consumers showed on Thursday that average household holiday spending could increase 4% to $1,654 this year, with gains driven by increased spending among Gen Z and millennial shoppers

  • Consumers expect retail spending to rise 10% to $988, while spending on holiday activities is projected to fall 4% to $666, Deloitte said, adding that 79% of shoppers planning to gift an experience also aim to pair it with a physical item

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