INDIA RUPEE-Rupee declines to one-week low as oil rally fans global rate hike worries

By Reuters News

By Jaspreet Kalra

- The Indian rupee fell to a one-week low on Thursday as a jump in oil prices and little progress in U.S.-Iran talks raised concerns that inflation could prompt further global rate hikes.

Dollar sales by state-run banks, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, limited losses and kept the rupee above 96 per dollar.

The currency ended at 95.9550 per dollar, down 0.2% for the day. Earlier in the day, the currency had slipped to 95.96, its lowest level since September 17.

The Iran conflict has weighed on emerging market currencies as elevated oil prices fan inflation in energy-importing economies and strain fiscal health.

A surge in global bond yields has added to the pressure with U.S. Treasury yields hitting multi-year highs as traders added to wagers on rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Thursday it was reasonable to think that the U.S. central bank might need to raise interest rates again before the end of the year to help bring down inflation risks.

The dollar index was a tad higher at 101 while Asian currencies weakened between 0.1% to 0.5%. Indian equities, meanwhile, endured their worst single day drop since early July.

"Periods of low FX volatility always end with a bang and current market conditions are certainly consistent with an increased risk of that scenario materialising. High yielders across EM would suffer most while the yen and Swiss franc would outperform," MUFG said in a note.

The Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah are among the high-yielding currencies in Asia and both were under pressure on Thursday.

Despite the headwinds from oil prices and higher global bond yields, near-tenor volatility expectations for the rupee have remained subdued with the 1-month implied volatility gauge hovering around the 4% mark.

Capital.com is an execution-only brokerage platform and the content provided on the Capital.com website is intended for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the products or securities to which it applies. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.

The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.

To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Capital.com (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk.

Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.