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Green Plains Q3 revenue slightly beats analyst expectations

By Reuters News


Overview

  • U.S. biofuels producer's Q3 revenue was a slight beat versus analyst expectations

  • Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled, driven by Section 45Z tax credits and improved margins

  • Company executed agreement to monetize $250 mln to $325 mln of 45Z tax credits


Outlook

  • Company updates 2026 full-year guidance to $230 mln-$250 mln adjusted EBITDA from 45Z tax credits

  • Green Plains executed agreement to monetize $250 mln-$325 mln of 2026 45Z tax credits

  • Company says 45Z monetization agreement provides greater visibility into converting credits into cash


Result Drivers

  • 45Z TAX CREDITS - Co said higher Section 45Z production tax credits contributed to increased net income and adjusted EBITDA

  • OPERATIONAL EXECUTION - Co cited high plant utilization and record ethanol and corn oil yields supporting improved margins

  • PLANT SALE IMPACT - Lower ethanol volumes from sale of Obion, Tennessee plant weighed on revenue, partially offset by higher selling prices


Company press release:


Key Details

Metric

Beat/Miss

Actual

Consensus Estimate

Q3 Revenue

Slight Beat*

$496 mln

$491.42 mln (4 Analysts)

Q3 EPS

$1.03

*Applies to a deviation of less than 1%; not applicable for per-share numbers.


Analyst Coverage

  • The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 3 "strong buy" or "buy", 3 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

  • The average consensus recommendation for the renewable fuels peer group is "buy"

  • Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Green Plains Inc. is $20.00, about 46.4% above its November 4 closing price of $13.66

  • The stock recently traded at 8 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 12 three months ago


Reuters Recommended Reads

  • Nov 4 - Alto Ingredients Q3 sales and adjusted EBITDA beat estimates on section 45Z tax credit growth

  • Nov 4 - CHS FY26 profit nearly doubles on stronger refining margins, oilseed crush and ethanol gains

  • Nov 4 - India puts food before fuel as El Niño dents ethanol ambitions


For questions concerning the data in this report, contact Estimates.Support@lseg.com. For any other questions or feedback, contact reuters.support@thomsonreuters.com.


(This story was created using Reuters automation and AI based on LSEG and company data. It was checked and edited by a Reuters journalist prior to publication.)

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