ECON WORLD NEWSLETTER-The 5% threshold
By Carmel Crimmins
Sept 24 (Reuters) - Hi there. So US bond yields are having a moment. Except for the two-year note, they are now all trading above 5%. Traditionally, that number has been seen as a psychological threshold, disrupting global markets as investors are tempted away from expensive stocks and corporate borrowers are squeezed.
But will this snowball into major market turbulence? The answer to that question partly depends on why yields are rising in the first place. Is it because growth is strong or because investors are demanding a higher return to deal with inflation and fiscal risks? I tackle that very topic in this week’s Reuters Econ World podcast with US economics editor Dan Burns. Watch it here.
I’ll get back into the bonds discussion later in the newsletter, but first some headlines:
THE HEADLINES
Trump welcomes Xi to Washington looking for a trade win
Netanyahu's fleeting visit to New York mirrors strained US ties
Judge blocks Trump's White House media ban, orders access to be restored
Residents in Ethiopia's Tigray region stock up in fear of return to full-scale war
So, the spur for this latest increase in US bond yields was strong economic data firing up expectations of an interest rate hike next month. US business activity is expanding at its fastest pace in more than five years, fuelled by a surge in new orders.
The prospect of higher interest rates is sending stocks lower but this doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the AI bull market. Treasury yields are only one factor for investors when they think about where to put their money. A company’s earnings outlook is also key and profits at S&P 500 companies are expected to jump 35% in 2026, up sharply from the 14% growth seen last year.
History does suggest US stocks could be in for some weakness but much depends on how aggressively the Fed hikes and the economy’s response. The current hiking cycle is expected to be relatively short and shallow, and after initial slides during past hiking cycles, stocks have tended to recover relatively quickly.
Much, of course, will depend on geopolitics and whether energy-fuelled inflation due to the war in Iran morphs into a sustained inflationary problem. Right now, the market is pricing in that the rate will peak at around 4.8% in a little over a year, giving a total increase of just over 100 basis points. Small comfort for US homebuyers, of course, who, after that jump in 10-year Treasury yields, now face a borrowing rate of over 7% on the most popular US mortgage.
Of course, higher US borrowing costs also make life difficult for countries that already have lots of debt. Ten-year Japanese government bond yields have hit a 30-year high and French 10-year yields have jumped to their highest level in over 18 years.
The French government must now pay a 111-basis-point premium on its 10-year bonds over Germany’s as investors seek more compensation to hold its debt.
On corporate debt markets, billionaire Masayoshi Son’s Softbank has managed to push through the largest corporate junk-bond offering on record. The company raised the equivalent of $11.1 billion in dollar- and euro-denominated bonds but had to pay a hefty price to do so, including a 7.5-year bond at a yield of 9.75%.
The proceeds will be used to fund Softbank’s mammoth bet on OpenAI. The conglomerate’s hopes for an influx of cash through the public listings of OpenAI and data centre development subsidiary SB Energy were dented in recent weeks after both delayed IPO plans.
A flood of debt issuance in the AI space has made some bond investors uneasy over what might happen if the technology fails to pay off. The cost of insuring SoftBank's debt against default has shot up, with the 5-year credit default swap spread exceeding 400 basis points this week, compared with around 280 basis points in June.
THE CHART
MSCI's main world stocks index halved in value the last time the 10-year Treasury yield broke 5%, which was just before the global financial crash. It suffered a similar slump less than a decade earlier when a near 6.8% spike helped pop the dotcom bubble.
THE PODCAST
"This is reflective of some problematic factors like inflation, but as we've discussed, it's also reflective of a pretty constructive outlook for economic growth and investment, particularly in the United States right now. So, it is genuinely one of those glass half full, glass half empty type of phenomenon." Reuters US economics editor Dan Burns on why US Treasury yields are rising.
On this week's Reuters Econ World, we look at 5% US bond yields and what they mean for investors and consumers. Watch it here.
THE REAL WORLD
Paris: Gucci's new 'Made in China' sneaker models break with Italian tradition
Bhubaneswar: India takes battle against junk food to shops near schools
Texas: Republicans may have gerrymandered their way into a Texas-sized Latino problem
THE WEEK AHEAD
Sept 25: Fed Hammack speech
Sept 28: BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes
Sept 30: U.S. PCE price index