CEE MARKETS-FX mostly edge up, looking for break from ranges
PRAGUE, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Central Europe's currencies mostly edged higher on Monday looking to break from recent ranges, with a fall in oil prices adding support that was tempered by a stronger US dollar.
Currencies have been on a weakening path in recent trading, and markets were expected to watch inflation data due in Hungary this week to take their next cues on a pause to interest rate cuts.
Analysts said an outlook downgrade for Poland by S&P ratings agency would have little impact on trade
In the Czech Republic, the crown was down a touch at 24.355 to the euro as lower market rates reflected scaled-back expectations of further rate hikes, following last week's increase by the Czech National Bank
Czech markets are pricing in two more rate hikes in the next 12 months, less than previously expected, while analysts see stable rates ahead
Hungary's forint inched up less than 0.1% to 363.20 to the euro, with inflation data due on Tuesday
The Czech central bank has delivered two interest rate hikes this year to contain inflation pressures amid strong domestic demand and elevated energy prices — and is the only bank in the region to tighten policy so far this year
Hungary and Romania have been on pause while markets are weighing when Poland may have to raise interest rates
The zloty added 0.1% to 4.3875 to the euro
Late on Friday S&P Global revised Poland's outlook to "negative" from "stable", citing rising debt as a factor as it limits fiscal flexibility
Romania's leu traded lower at 5.341 per euro, with focus on the central bank meeting later in the week at which it is expected to hold policy steady
On stock markets, Warsaw .WIG20 led gains in the region, with global equity markets rising
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1100 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Czech crown | 24.3550 | 24.3280 | -0.11% | -0.77% | |
Hungary forint | 363.2000 | 363.4500 | +0.07% | +5.83% | |
Polish zloty | 4.3875 | 4.3915 | +0.09% | -3.92% | |
Romanian leu | 5.3410 | 5.3347 | -0.12% | -4.62% | |
Serbian dinar | 117.5200 | 117.6200 | +0.09% | -0.19% | |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
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STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Prague | .PX | 2632.69 | 2630.3700 | +0.09% | -1.97% |
Budapest | .BUX | 144104.59 | 143453.78 | +0.45% | +29.79% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 4159.68 | 4131.37 | +0.69% | +30.64% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 34278.76 | 33986.93 | +0.86% | +40.26% |
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BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | 4.2228 | 0.0036 | +123bps | -1bps | |
Czech Rep 5-year | 4.5386 | -0.0315 | +147bps | -5bps | |
Czech Rep 10-year | 5.1526 | 0.0220 | +189bps | +1bps | |
Poland 2-year | 4.9200 | 0.0440 | +193bps | +3bps | |
Poland 5-year | 5.7030 | 0.0130 | +263bps | +0bps | |
Poland 10-year | 6.2280 | 0.0510 | +296bps | +4bps | |
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FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | , | 4.25 | 4.46 | 4.55 | 4.10 |
Poland | , | 4.22 | 4.45 | 4.56 | 3.89 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices | |||||