CEE MARKETS-FX mostly edge up, looking for break from ranges

By Reuters News

- Central Europe's currencies mostly edged higher on Monday looking to break from recent ranges, with a fall in oil prices adding support that was tempered by a stronger US dollar.

  • Currencies have been on a weakening path in recent trading, and markets were expected to watch inflation data due in Hungary this week to take their next cues on a pause to interest rate cuts.

  • Analysts said an outlook downgrade for Poland by S&P ratings agency would have little impact on trade

  • In the Czech Republic, the crown was down a touch at 24.355 to the euro as lower market rates reflected scaled-back expectations of further rate hikes, following last week's increase by the Czech National Bank

  • Czech markets are pricing in two more rate hikes in the next 12 months, less than previously expected, while analysts see stable rates ahead

  • Hungary's forint inched up less than 0.1% to 363.20 to the euro, with inflation data due on Tuesday

  • The Czech central bank has delivered two interest rate hikes this year to contain inflation pressures amid strong domestic demand and elevated energy prices — and is the only bank in the region to tighten policy so far this year

  • Hungary and Romania have been on pause while markets are weighing when Poland may have to raise interest rates

  • The zloty added 0.1% to 4.3875 to the euro

  • Late on Friday S&P Global revised Poland's outlook to "negative" from "stable", citing rising debt as a factor as it limits fiscal flexibility

  • Romania's leu traded lower at 5.341 per euro, with focus on the central bank meeting later in the week at which it is expected to hold policy steady

  • On stock markets, Warsaw .WIG20 led gains in the region, with global equity markets rising

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1100 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Czech crown

24.3550

24.3280

-0.11%

-0.77%

Hungary forint

363.2000

363.4500

+0.07%

+5.83%

Polish zloty

4.3875

4.3915

+0.09%

-3.92%

Romanian leu

5.3410

5.3347

-0.12%

-4.62%

Serbian dinar

117.5200

117.6200

+0.09%

-0.19%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Prague

.PX

2632.69

2630.3700

+0.09%

-1.97%

Budapest

.BUX

144104.59

143453.78

+0.45%

+29.79%

Warsaw

.WIG20

4159.68

4131.37

+0.69%

+30.64%

Bucharest

.BETI

34278.76

33986.93

+0.86%

+40.26%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

4.2228

0.0036

+123bps

-1bps

Czech Rep 5-year

4.5386

-0.0315

+147bps

-5bps

Czech Rep 10-year

5.1526

0.0220

+189bps

+1bps







Poland 2-year

4.9200

0.0440

+193bps

+3bps

Poland 5-year

5.7030

0.0130

+263bps

+0bps

Poland 10-year

6.2280

0.0510

+296bps

+4bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

,

4.25

4.46

4.55

4.10

Poland

,

4.22

4.45

4.56

3.89

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices




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