CEE MARKETS-FX extends losses as sentiment sours; Czech rate decision eyed
BUDAPEST, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Central European currencies extended losses on Tuesday, with Hungary's forint easing the most, reeling from a firmer U.S. dollar ahead of a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields.
"Monday's shock – a post-weekend surge in energy prices, a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5%, and a stronger U.S. dollar – hit CEE markets hard, weakening currencies and sharply repricing rates higher across the curve," ING said.
"Although risk-off sentiment is likely to persist today, higher front-end rates should help cushion currencies against further losses and create scope for stabilisation."
The forint weakened 0.4% to 367.00, while the Polish zloty was 0.2% weaker at 4.3455 per euro at 0730 GMT.
"CEEMEA currencies also weakened as higher energy prices and developed-market rate expectations supported the dollar. The moves were consistent with broader pressure on emerging-market carry as investors moved toward USD liquidity ahead of major central-bank meetings," Morgan Stanley said.
The main event of the week in the region will be Thursday's Czech National Bank interest-rate decision where the bank is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75%.
The crown was broadly flat at 24.293 per euro.
Polish 10-year yield is at its highest in 3-1/2 years, since March 2023.
"Bonds from the CEE-4 region—including Polish government bonds—performed very poorly; in our view, alongside global factors, they began to feel the pressure of regional geopolitics, specifically Russian provocations along NATO’s eastern flank," PKO BP said in a note.
Hungary's central bank holds its next rate-setting meeting on September 22 when it will also release fresh economic forecasts.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 0916 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Czech crown | 24.2930 | 24.2850 | -0.03% | -0.52% | |
Hungary forint | 367.0000 | 365.5000 | -0.41% | +4.73% | |
Polish zloty | 4.3455 | 4.3405 | -0.12% | -2.99% | |
Romanian leu | 5.2571 | 5.2590 | +0.04% | -3.10% | |
Serbian dinar | 117.2600 | 117.3300 | +0.06% | +0.03% | |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
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STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Budapest | .BUX | 151502.73 | 151724.51 | -0.15% | +36.45% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 4074.07 | 4121.57 | -1.15% | +27.95% |
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BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | 4.2278 | -0.0010 | +096bps | +0bps | |
Czech Rep 5-year | 3.8810 | -0.0030 | +053bps | -1bps | |
Czech Rep 10-year | 4.3360 | -0.0010 | +078bps | -2bps | |
Poland 2-year | 4.7420 | -0.1350 | +147bps | -13bps | |
Poland 5-year | 4.7770 | -0.0470 | +142bps | -6bps | |
Poland 10-year | 5.3990 | -0.0320 | +184bps | -5bps | |
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FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | , | 4.26 | 4.67 | 4.86 | 3.86 |
Poland | , | 4.21 | 4.64 | 4.82 | 3.84 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices | |||||