CEE MARKETS-FX extends losses as sentiment sours; Czech rate decision eyed

By Reuters News

- Central European currencies extended losses on Tuesday, with Hungary's forint easing the most, reeling from a firmer U.S. dollar ahead of a Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields.

  • "Monday's shock – a post-weekend surge in energy prices, a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5%, and a stronger U.S. dollar – hit CEE markets hard, weakening currencies and sharply repricing rates higher across the curve," ING said.

  • "Although risk-off sentiment is likely to persist today, higher front-end rates should help cushion currencies against further losses and create scope for stabilisation."

  • The forint weakened 0.4% to 367.00, while the Polish zloty was 0.2% weaker at 4.3455 per euro at 0730 GMT.

  • "CEEMEA currencies also weakened as higher energy prices and developed-market rate expectations supported the dollar. The moves were consistent with broader pressure on emerging-market carry as investors moved toward USD liquidity ahead of major central-bank meetings," Morgan Stanley said.

  • The main event of the week in the region will be Thursday's Czech National Bank interest-rate decision where the bank is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75%.

  • The crown was broadly flat at 24.293 per euro.

  • Polish 10-year yield is at its highest in 3-1/2 years, since March 2023.

  • "Bonds from the CEE-4 region—including Polish government bonds—performed very poorly; in our view, alongside global factors, they began to feel the pressure of regional geopolitics, specifically Russian provocations along NATO’s eastern flank," PKO BP said in a note.

  • Hungary's central bank holds its next rate-setting meeting on September 22 when it will also release fresh economic forecasts.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 0916 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

24.2930

24.2850

-0.03%

-0.52%

Hungary forint

367.0000

365.5000

-0.41%

+4.73%

Polish zloty

4.3455

4.3405

-0.12%

-2.99%

Romanian leu

5.2571

5.2590

+0.04%

-3.10%

Serbian dinar

117.2600

117.3300

+0.06%

+0.03%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Budapest

.BUX

151502.73

151724.51

-0.15%

+36.45%

Warsaw

.WIG20

4074.07

4121.57

-1.15%

+27.95%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

4.2278

-0.0010

+096bps

+0bps

Czech Rep 5-year

3.8810

-0.0030

+053bps

-1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

4.3360

-0.0010

+078bps

-2bps

Poland 2-year

4.7420

-0.1350

+147bps

-13bps

Poland 5-year

4.7770

-0.0470

+142bps

-6bps

Poland 10-year

5.3990

-0.0320

+184bps

-5bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

,

4.26

4.67

4.86

3.86

Poland

,

4.21

4.64

4.82

3.84

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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