CEE MARKETS-FX, bonds stabilise as oil falls; Moody's review of Poland eyed

By Reuters News

- Central European currencies and bond markets steadied as crude oil prices fell for a third straight session on Friday, while investors awaited Moody's review of Poland's sovereign credit rating later in the day.

  • Economists said the zloty and Polish bonds should be stabilising on Friday thanks to a quieter situation on energy and core debt markets.

  • "Moody’s decision regarding Poland’s credit rating, due after market close, is unlikely to impact the domestic bond market; we do not anticipate any rating changes from major agencies this year," Bank Millennium analysts said in a note.

  • Poland's industrial output rose at a solid pace in August, supported by a rebound in export demand, data published on Friday showed, but fell short of analysts' expectations. Producer prices (PPI) rose 4.2% year-on-year.

  • The zloty was down 0.1% at 4.3630 per euro at 0842 GMT, while the Hungarian forint weakened 0.2% to 363.65.

  • Hungary's central bank is expected to keep its base rate at 5.5% HUINT=ECI next Tuesday after three straight cuts, amid increased global risks and a planned lowering of its inflation goal, a Reuters poll showed.

  • The Czech central bank (CNB) left its main repo rate CZCBIR=ECI unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, as expected, but said a hike would be considered at the next meeting in November.

  • "The CNB press conference struck a dovish tone relative to market pricing, as expected, but signalled a 'no-change' stance compared to the August meeting. The CNB Board remains open to further rate hikes yet sees no need to rush at this moment," ING said.

  • The Czech crown was stable around 24.3280 per euro.

  • Stock markets in the region mostly fell in line with global bourses, but shares of Poland's largest fashion retailer LPP LPPP.WA rose nearly 7% after its second-quarter results came in above its preliminary numbers.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1042 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

24.3280

24.3170

-0.05%

-0.66%

Hungary forint

363.6500

362.8000

-0.23%

+5.70%

Polish zloty

4.3630

4.3580

-0.11%

-3.38%

Romanian leu

5.2640

5.2642

+0.00%

-3.23%

Serbian dinar

117.2900

117.3500

+0.05%

+0.01%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Budapest

.BUX

153426.34

154173.40

-0.48%

+38.18%

Warsaw

.WIG20

4134.61

4143.28

-0.21%

+29.86%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

4.2491

0.0033

+100bps

-3bps

Czech Rep 5-year

4.5999

0.0037

+127bps

-3bps

Czech Rep 10-year

5.2882

0.0043

+178bps

-2bps

Poland 2-year

4.6890

-0.1630

+144bps

-20bps

Poland 5-year

5.7710

-0.0060

+245bps

-4bps

Poland 10-year

6.1430

-0.0150

+264bps

-4bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

,

4.21

4.59

4.79

3.86

Poland

,

4.13

4.52

4.67

3.84

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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