CEE MARKETS-FX, bonds stabilise as oil falls; Moody's review of Poland eyed
WARSAW, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Central European currencies and bond markets steadied as crude oil prices fell for a third straight session on Friday, while investors awaited Moody's review of Poland's sovereign credit rating later in the day.
Economists said the zloty and Polish bonds should be stabilising on Friday thanks to a quieter situation on energy and core debt markets.
"Moody’s decision regarding Poland’s credit rating, due after market close, is unlikely to impact the domestic bond market; we do not anticipate any rating changes from major agencies this year," Bank Millennium analysts said in a note.
Poland's industrial output rose at a solid pace in August, supported by a rebound in export demand, data published on Friday showed, but fell short of analysts' expectations. Producer prices (PPI) rose 4.2% year-on-year.
The zloty was down 0.1% at 4.3630 per euro at 0842 GMT, while the Hungarian forint weakened 0.2% to 363.65.
Hungary's central bank is expected to keep its base rate at 5.5% HUINT=ECI next Tuesday after three straight cuts, amid increased global risks and a planned lowering of its inflation goal, a Reuters poll showed.
The Czech central bank (CNB) left its main repo rate CZCBIR=ECI unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, as expected, but said a hike would be considered at the next meeting in November.
"The CNB press conference struck a dovish tone relative to market pricing, as expected, but signalled a 'no-change' stance compared to the August meeting. The CNB Board remains open to further rate hikes yet sees no need to rush at this moment," ING said.
The Czech crown was stable around 24.3280 per euro.
Stock markets in the region mostly fell in line with global bourses, but shares of Poland's largest fashion retailer LPP LPPP.WA rose nearly 7% after its second-quarter results came in above its preliminary numbers.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1042 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Czech crown | 24.3280 | 24.3170 | -0.05% | -0.66% | |
Hungary forint | 363.6500 | 362.8000 | -0.23% | +5.70% | |
Polish zloty | 4.3630 | 4.3580 | -0.11% | -3.38% | |
Romanian leu | 5.2640 | 5.2642 | +0.00% | -3.23% | |
Serbian dinar | 117.2900 | 117.3500 | +0.05% | +0.01% | |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
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STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Budapest | .BUX | 153426.34 | 154173.40 | -0.48% | +38.18% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 4134.61 | 4143.28 | -0.21% | +29.86% |
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BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | 4.2491 | 0.0033 | +100bps | -3bps | |
Czech Rep 5-year | 4.5999 | 0.0037 | +127bps | -3bps | |
Czech Rep 10-year | 5.2882 | 0.0043 | +178bps | -2bps | |
Poland 2-year | 4.6890 | -0.1630 | +144bps | -20bps | |
Poland 5-year | 5.7710 | -0.0060 | +245bps | -4bps | |
Poland 10-year | 6.1430 | -0.0150 | +264bps | -4bps | |
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FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | , | 4.21 | 4.59 | 4.79 | 3.86 |
Poland | , | 4.13 | 4.52 | 4.67 | 3.84 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices | |||||