CEE MARKETS-Currencies weighted down by strong dollar, energy prices

By Reuters News

WARSAW, Sept 28 (Reuters) - A strong US dollar, high fuel prices, and rising core rates were weighing on central European currencies on Monday, with the Polish zloty stabilising after falling to a two-and-a-half-year low last week.

  • "Overall, we remain bearish and expect the zloty to underperform its CEE peers, reflecting the region’s highest inflation and a dovish central bank," ING analysts said.

  • The Polish zloty was stable at 0818 GMT at 4.3780 per euro after falling to its weakest level since January 2024 on Thursday.

  • Markets are waiting for the publication of CPI data for Poland on Wednesday, with some analysts expecting it to be above 4%. The Polish central bank aims to keep inflation in the 1.5% to 3.5% range.

  • Some central bankers have suggested a persistent pick-up in inflation could convince them to hike interest rates this year.

  • "Our baseline scenario for the coming days is for EUR/PLN and USD/PLN to stabilize within the 4.36 to 4.38 and 3.8150–3.86 ranges, respectively, while awaiting new market drivers," PKO BP analysts said in a note.

  • Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint weakened 0.7% to 367.80 per euro.

  • "The forint is mainly pressured by international events... the war is escalating in the Middle East, US and European yields are soaring, and the dollar's strength (is) putting pressure on the forint," an FX trader in Budapest said.

  • "There are no positive or negative drivers locally, so the international scene drives the rate."

  • Markets in the Czech Republic were closed on Monday for a public holiday.

  • Global ratings agency S&P revised the Czech Republic's outlook to "positive" from "stable" on Friday, citing an increased likelihood for the country's economy to withstand external headwinds.


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