CEE MARKETS-Bond yields steady near highs; eyes on Fed, Polish bond auction

By Reuters News

- Central European bond yields stabilised on Wednesday after rising to multi-year highs, tracking moves in core markets, as investors braced for U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day.

  • Markets have largely priced in a quarter-point rate increase by the Fed, which would lift its target range to 3.75%-4%, while signalling further tightening ahead.

  • The dollar held near multi-week highs ahead of the decision, but global bond yields eased after a recent run-up. Germany's 10-year bond yield fell 0.5 basis points to 3.53%, after reaching 3.5723% on Tuesday, its highest level since June 2009.

  • Central European bond markets followed the global trend in recent days and stabilised on Wednesday, with the Czech 10-year yield at 5.3818% and the Polish at 6.4430%, both unchanged on the day.

  • Poland's 10-year bond yields had hit a 3-1/2-year high of 6.5530% on Wednesday, before retreating.

  • "The Czech bond market is not immune to the global sell-off. Market interest rates are rising across the domestic yield curve, most notably at the long end. Yesterday, the yield on the 10-year government bond approached 5.4%, the highest level since late 2022," Patria Finance Chief Economist Dominik Rusinko said in a note.

  • "The decisive factor will be how long they remain at current levels."

  • Investors will also watch a Polish government bond auction later on Wednesday, where the finance ministry plans to offer papers worth between 7 billion and 10 billion zlotys.

  • "High demand, in the absence of a significant risk premium for the deteriorating global environment, could stabilize domestic government bonds on the secondary market," PKO BP analysts said.

  • Central European currencies, meanwhile, were looking for direction as investors awaited the Fed's policy announcement and guidance on the future path of U.S. interest rates.

  • The Polish zloty was unchanged at 4.3430 per euro at 0823 GMT and the Czech crown at 24.2960, while the Hungarian forint gained 0.1% to 364.80 per euro.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1023 CET



CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

24.2960

24.3070

+0.05%

-0.53%

Hungary forint

364.8000

365.3000

+0.14%

+5.36%

Polish zloty

4.3430

4.3420

-0.02%

-2.93%

Romanian leu

5.2630

5.2645

+0.03%

-3.21%

Serbian dinar

117.3300

117.3800

+0.04%

-0.03%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET



STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Budapest

.BUX

153795.64

153518.25

+0.18%

+38.51%

Warsaw

.WIG20

4068.72

4120.61

-1.26%

+27.79%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

4.3062

0.0362

+106bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

4.6953

-0.0031

+135bps

-2bps

Czech Rep 10-year

5.3818

0.0141

+183bps

+0bps







Poland 2-year

4.7320

0.0290

+148bps

+1bps

Poland 5-year

6.0190

0.0450

+267bps

+3bps

Poland 10-year

6.4430

0.0140

+290bps

+0bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

,

4.28

4.70

4.93

3.85

Poland

,

4.19

4.63

4.80

3.85

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices


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