CEE MARKETS-Bond yields steady near highs; eyes on Fed, Polish bond auction
WARSAW, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Central European bond yields stabilised on Wednesday after rising to multi-year highs, tracking moves in core markets, as investors braced for U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day.
Markets have largely priced in a quarter-point rate increase by the Fed, which would lift its target range to 3.75%-4%, while signalling further tightening ahead.
The dollar held near multi-week highs ahead of the decision, but global bond yields eased after a recent run-up. Germany's 10-year bond yield fell 0.5 basis points to 3.53%, after reaching 3.5723% on Tuesday, its highest level since June 2009.
Central European bond markets followed the global trend in recent days and stabilised on Wednesday, with the Czech 10-year yield at 5.3818% and the Polish at 6.4430%, both unchanged on the day.
Poland's 10-year bond yields had hit a 3-1/2-year high of 6.5530% on Wednesday, before retreating.
"The Czech bond market is not immune to the global sell-off. Market interest rates are rising across the domestic yield curve, most notably at the long end. Yesterday, the yield on the 10-year government bond approached 5.4%, the highest level since late 2022," Patria Finance Chief Economist Dominik Rusinko said in a note.
"The decisive factor will be how long they remain at current levels."
Investors will also watch a Polish government bond auction later on Wednesday, where the finance ministry plans to offer papers worth between 7 billion and 10 billion zlotys.
"High demand, in the absence of a significant risk premium for the deteriorating global environment, could stabilize domestic government bonds on the secondary market," PKO BP analysts said.
Central European currencies, meanwhile, were looking for direction as investors awaited the Fed's policy announcement and guidance on the future path of U.S. interest rates.
The Polish zloty was unchanged at 4.3430 per euro at 0823 GMT and the Czech crown at 24.2960, while the Hungarian forint gained 0.1% to 364.80 per euro.
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1023 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Czech crown | 24.2960 | 24.3070 | +0.05% | -0.53% | |
Hungary forint | 364.8000 | 365.3000 | +0.14% | +5.36% | |
Polish zloty | 4.3430 | 4.3420 | -0.02% | -2.93% | |
Romanian leu | 5.2630 | 5.2645 | +0.03% | -3.21% | |
Serbian dinar | 117.3300 | 117.3800 | +0.04% | -0.03% | |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
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STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2025 | |
Budapest | .BUX | 153795.64 | 153518.25 | +0.18% | +38.51% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 4068.72 | 4120.61 | -1.26% | +27.79% |
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BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | 4.3062 | 0.0362 | +106bps | +2bps | |
Czech Rep 5-year | 4.6953 | -0.0031 | +135bps | -2bps | |
Czech Rep 10-year | 5.3818 | 0.0141 | +183bps | +0bps | |
Poland 2-year | 4.7320 | 0.0290 | +148bps | +1bps | |
Poland 5-year | 6.0190 | 0.0450 | +267bps | +3bps | |
Poland 10-year | 6.4430 | 0.0140 | +290bps | +0bps | |
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FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | , | 4.28 | 4.70 | 4.93 | 3.85 |
Poland | , | 4.19 | 4.63 | 4.80 | 3.85 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices | |||||