CBOT wheat may retrace into $6.00-1/2 to $6.34 range in Q4

SINGAPORE, Sept 28 (Reuters) - CBOT wheat may retrace into a range of $6.00-1/2 to $6.34 per bushel in the fourth quarter, as a five-wave cycle from the October 2025 low of $4.92-1/4 has completed.

The completion was indicated by the close relation between the current fall and the cycle. A retracement analysis on the cycle reveals a series of levels that are governing the fall.

Both the 14.6% and the 23.6% levels worked effectively in shaping the exact course of the fall. After breaking the support at $7.09, the market is expected to extend losses into the range of $6.34 to $6.67-1/2.

A channel technique suggests a lower target around $6.00-1/2, the 61.8% level, as the market has slid below a rising channel.

A duplicated channel points to $6.00-1/2. A break above $7.09, now a resistance, may lead to a gain into the $7.34-1/2 to $7.75-3/4 range.

On the weekly chart, the contract observes a series of projection levels on the downtrend from $12.83-3/4. The uptrend from $4.92-1/4 might have been driven by a wave A, the first wave of a zigzag pattern.

Three waves make up this pattern. The current wave B is travelling toward the bottom of the wave 4 around $5.89-3/4, which is close to $6.00-1/2 (daily chart).

The uptrend may resume upon the completion of the wave B, around $5.89-3/4.

* Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. His analyses are published exclusively on Workspace -- a platform provided by London Stock Exchange. The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.