Brazil sees modest soy crop growth in 2026/27 as area expansion hits 20-year-low

By Roberto Samora

SAO PAULO, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 181.64 million metric tons in 2026/27, up 0.7% from the previous season, national crop agency Conab said on Tuesday in its first estimate for the new crop.

"The outlook is for moderate production growth, combined with a tighter supply and demand balance," Conab said in a report, citing lower profit margins and the diminished economic appeal of incorporating new land into production.

Farmers in the South American country, the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, have been grappling with elevated borrowing costs and higher fertilizer prices as input costs rose with the Middle East conflict.

Brazil's soybean planted area was estimated at 49.3 million hectares (121.8 million acres), a slight expansion from the previous season's 48.6 million hectares but marking the smallest percentage increase in two decades, according to Conab.

Soybean exports were forecast to rise 1.5% to 117.98 million tons, supported by strong Chinese demand.

"But growth is likely to be constrained by the limited increase in Brazilian supply and stronger competition from U.S. soybeans, as the United States is expected to harvest a large crop in 2026/27," Conab said.

At the same time, domestic crushing is projected to rise, supported primarily by expectations of higher soy oil demand from the biodiesel industry, it added.

RECORD CORN CROP

Brazil's 2026/27 corn crop is projected to reach 148 million tons, up 2.8% from the previous season and marking the largest harvest ever recorded in the country, Conab said.

Domestic demand is expected to continue expanding, supported by steady growth in the feed industry and the rapid development of Brazil's corn-based ethanol sector.

Corn exports were forecast at 46.01 million tons in 2026/27, up from 43.9 million tons in the previous season.

Shipments should remain robust thanks to ample supplies and the competitiveness of Brazil's corn, although competition from the U.S. and Argentina, foreign exchange swings and logistics costs may pose a drag, Conab said.