Gasoline petrol price forecast 2025-2030: Third-party price target
Discover third-party gasoline (petrol) price predictions for 2025 and beyond, with analyst targets, historical prices, and trading strategies.
Gasoline (petrol) prices have held steady in early 2025 but remain well below their June 2022 peak. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties continue to weigh on crude oil, keeping fuel costs in check.
With inflation cooling, central banks are easing monetary policy. The Bank of England cut its Bank Rate to 4.5% in February 2025, reflecting a shift towards looser financial conditions.
US unleaded gasoline futures (RBOB) traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) kicked off 2025 at around $2.01 per gallon (gal) – 53% below their 2022 peak and 29% lower than April 2024’s high. Meanwhile, Brent Crude is forecast to average $74 per barrel in 2025, dropping to $66 in 2026 as supply outpaces demand.
What’s next for petrol prices? In this article, we’ll break down the outlook, key drivers, and trading strategies.
Gasoline & petrol price forecast for 2025 and beyond
Gasoline and petrol price forecasts as of February 2025 include Trading Economics, which expected RBOB gasoline to trade at $2.12/gal by the end of the quarter, rising to $2.21/gal by February 2026. The platform attributed current low prices to optimism over a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal, which could ease sanctions on Russian oil exports and stabilise supply.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s forecasted US retail gasoline prices to average $3.20/gal in 2025 and $3.10/gal in 2026, down from $3.30/gal in 2024. The agency cites improving fuel efficiency as a key factor keeping demand in check, predicting that gains in efficiency will outpace increases in driving in 2025, while slower employment growth could slightly reduce gasoline consumption in 2026.
GasBuddy’s 2025 fuel price outlook predicted an average retail gasoline price of $3.22/gal, with a possible range of $2.81-$3.67/gal.
Meanwhile, Wallet Investor, an algorithm-based price forecasting service, expected RBOB gasoline to trade between $2.14/gal and $2.57/gal in 2025, closing the year at $2.16/gal. For 2026, it forecasts a range of $2.16/gal to $2.72/gal, ending December at approximately $2.31/gal.
Long-term gasoline and petrol outlook
While GasBuddy, Trading Economics, and the EIA don’t provide long-term gasoline price forecasts, Wallet Investor projected prices through to 2030.
According to its model, RBOB gasoline is expected to trade between $2.30 and $2.87/gal in 2027, closing the year at roughly $2.46. By 2028, prices could rise slightly, fluctuating between $2.45 and $3.02, with a projected close at $2.60. The trend is expected to continue in 2029, with estimates ranging from $2.60 to $3.16, settling at $2.75 by year-end. Looking ahead to early 2030, Wallet Investor forecasts prices in the $2.73 to $2.75 per gallon range.
Gasoline price forecasts beyond 2030 are currently unavailable due to uncertainty in crude oil prices and the overall global economic outlook over the longer term.
Analysts’ gasoline price predictions are based on historical data, and can be inaccurate. Past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of future results. Do your own research, and don’t trade with more than you can afford to lose.
Petrol price drivers and news: Why has gasoline been falling?
Retail gasoline and petrol prices can be influenced by a range of factors, including crude oil prices, macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, and market dynamics.
According to S&P Global, global gasoline demand is expected to peak at 28 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, marking a ‘watershed moment’ driven by surging EV adoption and improved vehicle efficiency – particularly in China, the world’s largest oil importer. Senior writer Robert Perkins notes that ‘diesel [may] follow quickly after.’
At the same time, supply is set to increase, potentially putting downward pressure on prices. S&P Global Commodity Insights highlights key refining capacity expansions in its 2025 Energy Outlook, including Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, which is projected to reach full production in 2025. Analysts warn that this supply-demand imbalance could erode refining margins, leading to accelerated closures, particularly in the Eastern US, Europe, and China.
Geopolitical events remain a key driver of fuel price volatility. GasBuddy notes that oil markets are highly sensitive to global disruptions, with sanctions on major oil exporters – such as Russia and Venezuela – limiting global supply. The recent restrictions on Russian oil, imposed after its invasion of Ukraine, triggered significant supply disruptions, pushing energy prices higher as demand outpaced available reserves.
Petrol and gasoline are products refined from crude oil and, as such, gasoline prices sometimes correlate with US and Brent crude prices.
Learn oil price drivers in our comprehensive crude oil and Brent crude guides.
Commodity trading strategies to consider
Whether it's gasoline futures or any commodity, a good strategy can introduce structure and discipline while trading financial markets, which are often unpredictable. Choose a trading strategy that fits your risk tolerance, availability, and individual preferences.
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Position trading: A long-term strategy; position traders aim to capture gains from sustained market movements.
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Day trading: A short-term strategy; day traders start trading when markets open, and close all positions at the end.
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Swing trading: A medium-term strategy; swing traders aim for profits by anticipating potential price swings.
- Trend trading: Variable-duration strategy; trend traders aim to follow a price trend for as long as possible, closing all positions before the market consolidates or reverses.
The importance of strategy in commodities trading
An effective trading strategy is essential in the commodities markets, where prices are historically volatile. A combination of technical and fundamental analysis can provide key support to traders adapting to changing market conditions.
Discover more trading strategies on our comprehensive trading strategies page.
Balancing risks and reward in commodities trading
Commodities trading offers potential rewards but requires careful risk management to limit potential losses and protect gains. Key practices to balance risk and reward include:
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Market research: Develop thorough knowledge about the underlying market’s supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and historical trends.
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Risk management: Implement stop-loss orders and appropriate position sizing to help limit losses, using a risk-reward ratio to guide each trade.
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Trading strategies: Choose strategies aligned with your risk tolerance and time commitment, such as position, swing, or day trading.
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Diversification: Spread investments across different commodities and strategies to reduce exposure to market volatility.
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Regulatory compliance: Trade through regulated brokers to ensure transparency, client fund protection, and fair execution practices.
By combining these elements, traders can manage risks more effectively, optimise trading strategies, and make better informed decisions.