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Devon Energy stock forecast: Will the bull run continue?

By Fitri Wulandari

Edited by Jekaterina Drozdovica

13:57, 1 June 2022

Devon Energy stock forecast: Will the bull run continue?
Devon Energy stock forecast: Will the bull run continue? Photo: Jeff Whyte / Shutterstock.com

Oil and gas explorer Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) scored as one of top performing stocks in S&P 500 Index (US 500) in 2021, gaining more than 180% amid rising energy prices. In 2022, the stock kept climbing against the bear market which saw US stocks tumbling. 

Until the wider equity market, the stock price of the Oklahoma-based company has returned more than 72% in the first five months of 2022 as energy prices remained volatile.

Oil and gas prices have shot up to record highs as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted supplies, while demand is expected to surge with the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions.

On the other hand, the company has maintained its disciplined cash-return business model which ensures strong returns, generates free cash flow, and returns to shareholders despite having windfall profit from soaring energy prices. 

As crude oil prices crossed $120 a barrel this week and expected to remain elevated, will Devon Energy maintain its bull run this year? Here we take a look at the latest news and other factors that may influence the Devon Energy stock price forecast in 2022 and beyond.

Devon Energy stock analysis: Technical view

Founded in 1971, Devon Energy is an independent oil and natural gas explorer as well as producer with main operations in the onshore US.

Devon’s shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker ‘DVN’ and are a part of S&P 500 Index (US 500).

Devon Energy saw its stock price plunge 37.82% in 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic crushed oil demand amid travel restrictions and lockdowns. 

The following year, Devon Energy made an impressive recovery owing to surging energy prices as energy demand had bounced back with countries easing Covid-19 restrictions and producers struggling to increase output. 

 Devon Energy stock price, 2017 - 2022

Devon Energy shares started 2021 at $15.88 and closed the year at $44, surging 182.92% in 2021. In comparison, US oil futures West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 55% in 2021, recouping 20.54% losses in 2020. 

Another factor that boosted  Devon Energy’s robust performance was a merger with oil company WPX Energy in January 2021. WPX had assets in the Delaware Basin in Texas and New Mexico and the Williston Basin in North Dakota.

DVN’s stock continued its bull run since the start of 2022, closing at $45.57 in early January and has been on an upward trajectory since then. The stock surged 10% on 3 May after the company reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings, the biggest single-day gain so far for this year. 

On 27 May, the stock advanced to fresh 52-week highs at $75.83, surpassing its peak of $73.81 hit on the previous day, as seen on the chart above.

Devon Energy has gained 72.08% this year and pleased shareholders with 185.39% one-year return, outperforming S&P 500 Index which has dipped 12.76% in 2022 and 1.09% in the past year. 

But DVN is still behind its fellow shale producer Occidental Petroleum (OXY), which has surged more than 144% this year and delivered nearly 173% annual return following Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) massive investment in its stock.

As of 31 May DVN’s technical analysis showed bullish sentiment with daily, weekly, and monthly indicators suggesting a ‘strong buy’, according to TradingView. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings at 67.99 was still neutral yet extremely close to overbought territory. An RSI reading of 70 or above typically indicates that the stock has become overvalued and a trend reversal is likely. 

Meanwhile, the stock was trading above its 10, 20-and 30-day moving averages (MA), indicating a strong upward trend. 

Surging energy prices, strong demand

Like many of its peers, the rally in oil and gas prices have been the dominant factor in fuelling Devon Energy’s stock price stellar gain.  

Oil prices cooled briefly in early January after the spread of Covid-19 Omicron variant appeared milder than expected. However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began on 24 February, has rattled the energy markets once more. 

Sanctions to block energy exports from the world’s second largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia and a key natural gas provider to Europe have tightened supplies in the market, leaving buyers to scramble for new sources to replace Russian oil and gas.

Russia’s move to demand buyers to pay for its gas in roubles to retaliate against Western sanctions has been a boon for US natural gas producers as European buyers must seek new sources. Last month, Russia cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for failing to pay for its gas in the country’s national currency. 

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The US Energy Information Agency (EIA) in its short-term energy outlook published on 5 May  forecast the country’s exports of liquefied natural gas to average 12.0 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) this year, a 23% increase from 2021. 

International benchmark Brent oil futures crossed above $120 a barrel on 31 May following a move by the European Union to impose a partial ban on Russian oil exports. The policy would de facto cut 90% of Russia’s oil imports to the block by the end of 2022, according to the EU Commission’s President, Ursula von der Leyen.

The oil benchmark has risen 54% this year compared to 50.15% gain for overall 2021. 

In a note published on 27 May, Fitch Solutions forecast Brent to average $100 a barrel this year as the proposed EU import ban on Russian crude will limit the downside. The rating agency predicted WTI to average $97 per barrel in 2022. 

First-quarter earnings beat estimates

In the latest Devon Energy stock news, the company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.88 in the first quarter of 2022 beating consensus analysts’ estimate of $1.74.

Its total revenue in the quarter rose by 85.9% year-on-year to $3.81bn due to higher oil and gas prices. The revenue was below analysts’ expectations of $4.02bn for the quarter. The company’s earnings have exceeded analysts’ estimates at least the last five consecutive quarters.

Devon Energy posted operating cash flow of $1.8bn, a 14% increase from the same period a year ago. With the current level of cash flow, the oil producer was able to fund all capital requirements, resulting in a record free cash flow of $1.3bn.

In the first quarter, the company’s realised oil price, including cash settlement, was $81.62 per barrel (bbl), compared to $46.15 in the same period last year. Its realised natural gas price also rose to $3.15/Mcf (1,000 cubic feet).

“Commodity prices strengthened throughout 2021 and oil prices continued to increase in the first quarter of 2022, which has significantly improved our earnings and cash flow generation,” the company said in its earnings report.
“The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine and related economic sanctions imposed on Russia has further exacerbated supply shortages, causing oil prices to increase even more during the first quarter of 2022.”

On the production side, Devon Energy pumped a total of 575,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in the first quarter, jumping 15.2% year-on-year. 

The company also announced a cash dividend of $1.27 a share payable on 30 June 2022. The dividend pay-out increased by 27% from the previous quarter. 

For the full year of 2022, the company has kept its total production target in the range of 570,000 to 600,000 BOE. Devon Energy expects to spend capital expenditure between $2.06bn to $2.44bn which roughly 90% goes to exploration and production. 

Devon Energy stock projections: Analyst views

Is Devon Energy stock a ‘buy’, a ‘sell’ or a ‘hold’? As of 31 May, a consensus rating for the stock was a ‘buy’, based on 15 analyst views compiled by MarketBeat. The ratings varied, with eight analysts rating the stock as a ‘buy’, six as a ‘hold’, and one recommended a ‘strong buy’. 

The average DVN stock price target for the next twelve months stood at $68.06, ranging from the high of $100 to the low of  $37. 

In its DVN stock price forecast based on global macro models and analyst price targets, economic data provider Trading Economics suggested the stock could trade at $73.90 by the end of this quarter and at $68.45 in a year’s time. 

Morningstar’s director Dave Meats and associate equity analyst Justin Pan felt DVN’s stock surge was overdone, and shareholders should take profits, according to their note published on 20 May. 

They have lowered their fair value for the stock to $48 from $52, considering the company’s first-quarter reports. 

“The decrease primarily reflects inflationary pressures. We previously commented, the firm kept spending below budget in the first quarter and left full-year guidance unchanged while acknowledging the final spend would likely fall in the upper half of the year,” the analysts said in their DVN stock analysis. 

Meats and Pan expected crude oil prices to remain volatile in the near-term, but maintained its long-term forecast for WTI at $55 per barrel.

Devon Energy long-term stock outlook

While analysts rarely provide stock projections beyond one year, algorithm-based prediction services do. Wallet Investor expected the stock to trade at $62.404 in December 2022, before rising to $66.945 in May 2023 and $68.987 in May 2025. 

While Wallet Investor did not provide Devon stock price forecast for 2030, the site suggested that the stock could reach the future price of $71.501 in May 2027. 

Note that DVN stock prediction provided by analysts or algorithm-based forecasting sites can be wrong. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. 

Always conduct your own due diligence by looking into the latest news, technical and fundamental analysis, and analyst commentary. Keep in mind that your decision to trade or invest should be based on your risk tolerance, market expertise, portfolio size, and goals.

Remember that past performance does not guarantee future results, and never invest or trade money that you cannot afford to lose.

FAQs

Is Devon Energy stock a ‘buy’?

As of 31 May, a consensus rating for Devon Energy stock was a ‘buy’, based on 15 analysts’ views compiled by MarketBeat. The ratings varied, with eight analysts rating the stock as a ‘buy’, six a ‘hold’, and one ‘strong buy’. Please remember that analyst forecasts can be wrong and should never be used instead of your own research. And never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

Will Devon Energy stock price go up or down?

The average DVN stock price target for the next twelve months stood at $68.06, ranging from the high of $100 to the low of  $37, according to 15analyst views compiled by MarketBeat. Bear in mind that stock markets remain volatile and analysts’ expectations can be wrong. Always rely on your research and never invest or trade money that you cannot afford to lose.

Why has the Devon Energy stock price been going up?

Surging oil and gas prices caused by rising demand and tight supplies induced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict have boosted Devon Energy’s share price.

Does Devon Energy pay dividends?

Devon Energy (DVN) has consistently paid dividends since 2013. In its first-quarter of 2022 earnings report the company announced a cash dividend of $1.27 a share payable on 30 June 2022. The dividend pay-out increased by 27% from the previous quarter.

Markets in this article

BRKb
Berkshire Hathaway
424.74 USD
5.44 +1.300%
Oil - Brent
Brent Oil
84.580 USD
-0.522 -0.610%
DVN
Devon
46.53 USD
0.05 +0.110%
OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corp (Extended Hours)
61.26 USD
-0.27 -0.440%
US500
US 500
5615.4 USD
27.5 +0.490%

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