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Crypto seasonal trends: Could The Merge break ETH’s ‘Septembear’ curse?

By Daniela Ešnerová

15:00, 6 September 2022

Ethereum (ETH) coins
Historically, ETH on average returned -17.1% during September in 2015-2021 – Photo: Shutterstock

Ethereum (ETH) has entered what has historically been the worst month for its performance. But the altcoin king is also about to undergo a long-expected upgrade, The Merge, this month. Can Merge-anticipating ETH bulls break the ‘Septembear’ curse this year?

ETH’s September returns were, on average, almost three times as bad as those of BTC over the last seven years, Capital.com’s analysis shows.

But ETH has been outperforming BTC lately as The Merge – which is set to make the second biggest blockchain more efficient and environmentally-friendly – is finally set to happen around 13–15 September 2022. 

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ETH to US Dollar

Septembear hits ETH harder than BTC

The September blues in no way affect only digital assets’ performance – their impact is felt across all assets classes. And so it should be no surprise that September is bad news for the cryptocurrency market, which is highly correlated with the equity markets, too.

ETH’s September returns over the last seven years have been almost three times worse than those of BTC. Bitcoin (BTC) historically returned a medium return of -6.6% over the last seven Septembers, Capital.com’s analysis of investment returns data showed.

Meanwhile, ETH’s September returns between 2015 and 2021 averaged out at –17.1% .

ETH/USD

3,430.62 Price
-0.440% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0616%
Short position overnight fee 0.0137%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 6.00

BCH/USD

380.00 Price
-2.110% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0753%
Short position overnight fee 0.0069%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 2.50

DOGE/USD

0.12 Price
-1.410% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0753%
Short position overnight fee 0.0069%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.0012872

BTC/USD

64,675.50 Price
-0.120% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0616%
Short position overnight fee 0.0137%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 106.00

Ethereum (ETH) seasonal patterns

“Historically, September bodes poorly for risk assets, crypto and equity markets alike. In eight out of the last 11 years, Bitcoin has closed September in the red. In four out of the last six years, ETH has closed September down,” said Clara Medalie, head of research at cryptocurrency market data provider Kaiko.

Bitcoin (BTC) to US Dollar

Bullish anticipation

Ethereum’s upgrade from a proof-of-stake to a proof-of-work consensus mechanism has been in the works for a while now. The migration’s journey can be dated back to 1 December 2020 with the launch of Beacon Chain, but it has been postponed several times on the way. 

However, with a final upgrade, Bellatrix, now live, The Merge finalisation is imminent.

“This year could prove to be an exception to the ‘September effect’ phenomenon thanks to the upcoming Merge, which will radically change the Ethereum network,” Medalie said.

“There is bullish anticipation around this significant market event that promises to transform Ethereum into a more efficient, scalable, and environmentally-friendly network. The Merge could certainly have a bullish effect on prices, although there is small chance that problems could arise that could shake investor confidence,” she noted. 

Markets in this article

BTC/USD
Bitcoin / USD
64675.50 USD
-74.85 -0.120%
ETH/USD
Ethereum / USD
3430.62 USD
-15.21 -0.440%

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The difference between trading assets and CFDs
The main difference between CFD trading and trading assets, such as commodities and stocks, is that you don’t own the underlying asset when you trade on a CFD.
You can still benefit if the market moves in your favour, or make a loss if it moves against you. However, with traditional trading you enter a contract to exchange the legal ownership of the individual shares or the commodities for money, and you own this until you sell it again.
CFDs are leveraged products, which means that you only need to deposit a percentage of the full value of the CFD trade in order to open a position. But with traditional trading, you buy the assets for the full amount. In the UK, there is no stamp duty on CFD trading, but there is when you buy stocks, for example.
CFDs attract overnight costs to hold the trades (unless you use 1-1 leverage), which makes them more suited to short-term trading opportunities. Stocks and commodities are more normally bought and held for longer. You might also pay a broker commission or fees when buying and selling assets direct and you’d need somewhere to store them safely.
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