Cocoa price forecast: Third-party outlook
Cocoa is a closely watched commodity market, with prices reflecting a combination of evolving supply conditions, demand patterns and shifting expectations. Against this backdrop, current pricing and positioning data can provide valuable insights into how the market trades.
Cocoa (US cocoa spot CFD) is trading around $5,877.7 per tonne as of 12:01pm UTC on 7 January 2026, positioned near the lower end of its intraday range between $5,876.2 and $6,169.1 on Capital.com’s trading platform. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Recent cocoa price movements come after 2025 deficits linked to adverse weather and disease in West Africa. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCA)’s November 2025 bulletin reported that global grindings are estimated to fall from 4.81 million tonnes in 2023/24 to 4.60 million tonnes in 2024/25, pointing to weaker processing demand (ICCA, 12 December 2025), while prior updates earlier in the year continued to underline supply tightness and volatility in benchmark futures prices (ICCA, 28 November 2025).
Cocoa price forecast 2026-2030: Analyst price target view
As of 7 January 2026, third-party cocoa price predictions reflect shifting expectations around West African supply recovery, demand normalisation, and the transition from earlier deficits to a projected surplus environment. Published forecasts are presented as indicative scenarios rather than outcomes, and past performance is not a reliable guide to future results.
ING (commodities research)
ING’s cocoa team forecasts that London cocoa will average a little more than £3,400 per tonne in 2026 – approximately $4,586.48 USD as of 7 January 2026 – down significantly from 2024 and 2025 levels but still above pre-2023 norms. The bank notes that expectations for consecutive global surpluses in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, alongside easing supply concerns and weaker demand, underpin its view that prices may remain elevated relative to longer-term averages, though below prior peaks (News Ghana, 19 December 2025).
World Bank (commodity outlook)
The World Bank’s commodity blog states that beverage prices, including cocoa, are expected to moderate through 2026 from earlier extremes, without specifying a single point price target. The institution cites recovering cocoa supply in key producing regions and softer demand as factors that could ease prices from 2025 levels, while noting continued sensitivity to weather conditions and policy developments (World Bank Group, 2 December 2025).
International Cocoa Organization (market balance guidance)
In its November 2025 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, the International Cocoa Organization outlines a shift from a deficit of around 489,000 tonnes in 2023/24 to a projected surplus of 49,000 tonnes in 2024/25. This implies a less tight market backdrop for prices into the 2025/26 season rather than providing a specific price forecast. The bulletin attributes this change to an estimated 7.6% rise in global production and a 4.3% fall in grindings, amid signs of reinvestment in farms and demand pressure from higher prices (ICCA, 28 November 2025).
J.P. Morgan (medium-term cocoa view)
J.P. Morgan Global Research maintains a medium-term price view of around $6,000 per tonne while the market 'finds balance' through the 2025/26 season. The bank frames this level as structural rather than as a precise year-end target, citing ongoing multi-season availability constraints and gradual recovery across West Africa, alongside expanding output in Ecuador (J.P. Morgan, 5 August 2025).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Technical indicators: cocoa price
Cocoa (US cocoa spot CFD) is trading near $5,877.7 per tonne as of 12:01pm UTC on 7 January 2026, sitting just above the Classic support zone at $5,478 and below the $6,563 Classic R1 reference. The daily trend remains under pressure, with price holding beneath the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered around roughly 6,010, 5,842, 6,414 and 7,599 respectively. The 14-day RSI is near 48, indicating neutral, mid-range momentum rather than a clear directional bias.
On the topside, the first area to watch is the Classic R1 pivot near $6,563. A sustained daily close above that level would bring the $7,062 R2 area back into view, with earlier highs around the 100-day SMA near 6,414 potentially acting as an intermediate reference. On pullbacks, initial support aligns with the Classic Pivot at $5,977, while a decisive break below that level would shift focus toward the S1 area near $5,478. The longer-term 200-day SMA around 7,599 remains a key moving-average reference on any subsequent recovery (TradingView, 7 January 2026).
This technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Cocoa price history
US cocoa spot prices have experienced pronounced volatility over the past two years, moving from sub-$4,500 levels in early 2024 to five-figure prices during 2024–2025 before easing back toward the high-$5,000s by early 2026. The contract closed at 4,126.9 on 9 January 2024, then rose steadily through the first quarter and into April, when it traded repeatedly above 10,000 and finished the month at 8,991.3 on 30 April 2024.
By December 2024, cocoa remained volatile but off its highs, ending the year at 11,201.2 on 31 December after briefly touching 12,675.1 earlier in the month. In 2025, prices pushed higher again before turning lower. Cocoa closed at 11,258.4 on 3 January 2025, peaked above 11,900 in late January and February, and later climbed again in April, ending that month at 9,066.5 on 29 April after spiking to 10,674.2 on 26 April.
From mid-2025, prices began to cool, with closes retreating from above 10,000 in May and June toward the 7,000–8,000 range over the summer. A more pronounced slide followed in the autumn, taking cocoa from 7,086.6 on 30 September to 5,558.6 on 28 November 2025 as prices normalised. By year-end, cocoa had settled into the mid-$5,000s–$6,000s range, closing at 6,066.4 on 31 December 2025 and 5,886.8 on 7 January 2026, well below the extremes of 2024 and early 2025, but still materially above early-2024 levels.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Cocoa price outlook: Capital.com analysis
Cocoa prices have retreated sharply from the extreme highs recorded in 2024 and early 2025, with the US cocoa spot CFD recently trading in the high-$5,000s per tonne. This pullback reflects a broader adjustment highlighted by institutions such as J.P. Morgan and ING, which point to improved supply prospects and softer grindings following an earlier period of tightness. At the same time, these institutions note that prices remain well above pre-2023 levels, and that renewed demand strength or weather-related disruptions could quickly alter the supply-demand balance.
Improved crop expectations, weaker industrial demand and the emergence of cocoa alternatives may continue to weigh on prices, while lingering structural challenges in key West African producers, sustainability regulations and potential restocking by manufacturers could limit downside and sustain volatility. Traders should also be aware that CFD pricing on Capital.com tracks the underlying benchmark but may differ from other venues due to spreads, funding costs and execution conditions. Client positioning data reflects current exposure on the platform rather than an indication of future price direction.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance, including analyst views and price commentary, is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for cocoa CFDs
As of 7 January 2026, Capital.com client positioning in cocoa CFDs currently shows a strong skew towards long positions, with 85.2% of open positions held by buyers compared with 14.8% by sellers. This places buyers ahead by approximately 70.4 percentage points and indicates a one-sided positioning profile rather than a balanced distribution. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change over time as traders adjust their exposure.
Summary – cocoa price 2026
- Cocoa prices remain elevated, supported by supply concerns in West Africa and weaker grind data.
- Analyst forecasts vary widely, reflecting uncertainty around production recovery and longer-term productivity issues.
- Technical indicators for both US and UK cocoa point to neutral momentum, with key support and resistance levels in focus.
Cocoa prices are sensitive to harvest conditions, shipping flows and global demand trends.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
What is the cocoa price forecast?
Cocoa price forecasts into 2026 vary widely, reflecting uncertainty around global supply recovery, demand trends and weather conditions in key producing regions. Analysts cited in this article generally place indicative price views within a broad mid-thousands range per tonne, rather than around a single target. These projections are scenario-based and depend on assumptions that may change over time. As with all commodity forecasts, they should be viewed as illustrative rather than predictive.
Could cocoa’s price go up or down?
Cocoa prices can move in either direction, influenced by factors such as crop yields in West Africa, global processing demand, weather patterns, disease pressures and policy developments. While prices have eased from earlier extremes, the market continues to react to changes in supply conditions and consumption trends. Periods of volatility are not unusual in cocoa markets, meaning prices may fluctuate significantly over shorter time frames as new information emerges.
Should I invest in cocoa?
This article does not provide investment advice. Whether cocoa exposure is appropriate depends on individual circumstances, risk tolerance and financial objectives. Cocoa prices can be volatile and are influenced by a range of global factors, which may result in rapid gains or losses. Before making any decision, traders may wish to consider how commodities fit within their broader approach, understand the associated risks and, if appropriate, seek independent professional advice.
How can I trade cocoa CFDs on Capital.com?
On Capital.com, traders can access cocoa CFDs, which allow positions to be opened without owning the underlying commodity. Contracts for difference (CFDs) let you trade on rising or falling prices. Prices track the underlying benchmark but may differ due to spreads and other costs. CFDs are traded on margin – leverage amplifies both profits and losses.