Citigroup stock forecast: Will the stock break the slump spell?
The stock price of the US bank Citigroup (C) has been in the dumps since 2020. A massive overhaul of the business launched in 2021 has not yet convinced investors on the performance of the New York-based lender.
At the time of writing (14 July), Citigroup’s stock has lost around 25% of its value compared to a 2% drop in 2021.
As macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical tension and a slump in equity markets continue to challenge the banking industry, will Citigroup manage to break out from negative territory? We take a look into the latest news, financial performance and other factors will shape Citigroup stock forecast.
What is Citigroup?
Citi was originally founded in 1812 with the establishment of the City Bank of New York. In 1998, Citicorp and the financial conglomerate Travelers Group merged to form the group. As of July 2022, the company has approximately 200 million customer accounts and operates in more than 160 countries and jurisdictions
Citigroup has four operating segments: Institutional Clients Group (ICG), Personal Banking and Wealth Management, Legacy Franchises, and Corporate/Other
ICG operates in three areas Banking, Markets and Services with a physical presence in 95 countries, local trading desks in 77 markets and a custody network in 63 markets.
Personal Banking & Wealth Management was formerly known as Global Consumer banking (GCB). The segment provides traditional banking services to retail customers in the US, including branded cards, retail services and retail banking. The Global Wealth management covers its consumers’ wealth businesses in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) as well as the global Citi Private Bank.
Legacy Franchises consists of the consumer franchises in 13 markets across Asia and EMEA that Citi intends to exit (Asia Consumer), the consumer, small business & middle-market banking (Mexico SBMM) operations in Mexico (collectively Mexico Consumer/SBMM); and Legacy Holdings Assets (primarily North America consumer mortgage loans and other legacy assets).
Corporate/Other includes certain unallocated costs of global staff functions (including finance, risk, human resources, legal and compliance), other corporate expenses and unallocated global operations, technology expenses and income taxes, as well as Corporate Treasury and discontinued operations.
Technical view and price action
C stock price has disappointed the shareholders in the past two years with a 2% decline in 2021, and losing 23% in 2020. Zack Research’s senior equity analyst Devyani Chamria attributed the weak performance to the bank’s troublesome former GCB segment.
This year has not been any easier for Citi, despite having embarked on its transformation strategy by exiting its consumer franchises, including its profitable small business and middle-market banking operations of Citibanamex in Mexico.
Citi’s stock has been mostly on a downward trajectory in the first half of this year apart from a couple of price spikes in January and February, including hitting the highest intraday for the year of $69.11 on 11 February.
The stock value has dropped 25% year-to-date and 33% in the past year, lagging S&P 500 Bank Select Index which has dropped 19% in 2022 and 13% in one year.
Technical analysis suggested bearish short-term sentiment for the stock, which at the time of writing trades below its 10,20,30-day moving averages. The relative strength index (RSI) reading of 39.46 was neutral, yet close to oversold territory.
Consumer business divestiture
On 16 April 2021, Citi announced that it would focus its consumer banking businesses in Asia and EMEA in four locations: Singapore, Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and London. As a result of the new policy, the bank intended to exit its consumer franchises in 13 markets across the two regions. The move was part of the lender’s strategic review.
As of the first quarter of 2022, Citi has signed deals to divest nine consumer businesses: Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Bahrain, according to the company’s first quarter presentation.
As part of its consumer business divestment, Citigroup is also gradually reducing its exposure in Russia. As of 31 March, the bank has already cut its exposure to the country to $7.8bn, from $9.8bn in December 2021. Its net investment in the Russia bank entity decreased to $700m from $1bn.
While the bank is in the middle of a turnaround process, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKb) made a surprise move by buying nearly $3bn stake in Citi in the first quarter of 2022, according to the company’s SEC filing.
In June, Citigroup was hit by a requirement from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to increase its Stress Capital Buffer (SCB) to 4% (from 3% earlier) starting in the fourth quarter of 2022. The capital increase will continue throughout the third quarter of 2023. The bank was also required to maintain an 11.5% effective minimum Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio.
The request came after the Fed launched its annual stress tests on 34 large US banks and released the results on 23 June. The Fed's stress test determines whether banks are adequately capitalised to absorb losses during stressful times while meeting the obligations of creditors and counterparties and continuing to lend to households and businesses.
Greater SCB results in higher capital requirements that limit the amount of money Citigroup can allocate for dividends and share buybacks.
Divestiture bites first-quarter earnings
In the first quarter of 2022, the bank posted a net income of $4.3bn, down 46% from $7.9bn or $3.62 earnings per share (EPS) in the same period in 2022 due to higher credit cost, expenses and lower revenue.
Revenues decreased by 2% to $19.2bn, from $19.7bn a year ago. EPS 44% to $2.02 per diluted share reflecting lower net income. However, the figure still beat the analyst estimate of $1.74.
In the briefing with analysts Citigroup’s chief financial officer Mark Mason said that the lower earnings include the impact of Asia consumer divestiture.
Mason did not provide guidelines for the second-quarter earnings. However, the company kept its target of low single-digit revenue growth and mid-single-digit expense growth for this year, with both targets excluding divestiture-related impacts, he said.
Citi is scheduled to announce its second-quarter results on 15 July as US banks kick off the earnings season. Analysts polled by MarketBeat estimated that the company’s EPS would come at $1.62
Citigroup stock forecast: Analyst views
Eric Compton, Morningstar’s senior equity analyst downgraded the stock to ‘no-moat’ rating. While Citigroup has a wide global presence that differentiates the bank from its US-based competitors, it also comes with risks.
For the commercial business, Compton said Citi hasn’t been able to monetise its unique and robust set of offerings for multinational corporations to yield high enough excess profitability.
On the domestic North American market, the bank does not have a robust presence nor product offering as their peers, he said.
Fears of recession hit bank stocks forecasts
With fears of recession intensifying amid contractionary monetary policy and slowing global demand, bank stocks may be affected as they are embedded into the economic cycle.
To tame multi-decade high inflation the US Fed has hiked the interest rate by 75 basis points last month, and more hikes are expected. Yet while higher rates may boost lending margins, there is also a higher risk of debt defaults during an economic downturn.
Price targets & forecasts
The consensus rating for Citigroup stock was ‘hold’, according to the data compiled by MarketBeat at the time of writing.
Among the 14 analysts who rated the stock, one analyst gave a ‘sell’ rating, seven recommended a ‘hold’ rating and six gave a ‘buy’ call for Citigroup. The average twelve-month price target for Citigroup stock was $65.48, ranging from a high of $93 to a low of $46.
TipRanks data showed that eight out of 15 analysts tracked gave a ‘moderate buy’ rating for Citigroup stock. Six analysts rated the stock a ‘hold’ and one recommended a ‘sell.’ The analysts offered the average twelve-month price target of $58.89, varying from a high forecast of $78. to a low forecast of $46.00.
Analysts typically do not provide long-term C stock forecasts for beyond twelve months, yet algorithm-based forecasting services do. At the time of writing WalletInvestor suggested that C stock price is a bad long-term investment.
According to the site’s Citigroup stock forecast for 2022, the provider expected the stock to trade at $49.729 in December 2022. For its Citigroup stock forecast for 2025, Wallet Investor predicted C stock could fall to $44.50 in December 2025 and drop further to $38.010 in July 2027.
Gov Capital was bullish in its Citigroup stock forecast. The machine-learning price forecasting service projected C stock price to reach $ 49.518 on 31 December 2022, rising to $208.103 on 31 December 2025. The site suggested that the stock could trade at $319.268 by 16 July 2027.
When researching the Citigroup share price forecast, remember that analysts and algorithm-based Citigroup stock predictions can be wrong. They should not be seen as an encouragement to invest in the company’s stock.
Forecasts should never replace your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence by reviewing the most recent market analysis and Citigroup stock news. Keep in mind that your decision to trade or invest should be based on your risk tolerance, market expertise, portfolio size and goals.
Remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Furthermore, never invest or trade money that you cannot afford to lose.
FAQs
Is Citigroup a good stock to buy?
The consensus rating for Citigroup stock was ‘hold’, according to the data compiled by MarketBeat at the time of writing (14 July). TipRanks data showed that eight out of 15 analysts tracked gave a ‘moderate buy’ rating for Citigroup stock. Remember, however, that analysts can be wrong. Whether Citigroup is a suitable stock to buy should depend on your personal circumstances such as portfolio size and goals, risk tolerance and your experience in the markets. Always conduct your research and never invest or trade money that you cannot afford to lose.
How high can Citigroup stock go?
Among the 14 analyst views compiled by MarketBeat, as of 14 July, the average 12-month price target for Citigroup stock was $65.48, ranging from a high of $93 to a low of $46. TipRanks the average twelve-month price target of $58.89, varying from a high forecast of $78. to a low forecast of $46.00. Note that analysts' predictions can be wrong and cannot be used as a substitute for your own research.
Should I invest in Citigroup stock?
Whether you should invest in Citigroup stock depends on your risk tolerance, investing goals and portfolio composition. You should do your own research. And never trade more money than you can afford to lose.
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