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Blue Apron stock forecast: Where next for APRN after equity offering crushed share price?

By Iliana Mavrou

Edited by Jekaterina Drozdovica

15:39, 18 October 2022

Closeup of mobile phone screen with logo lettering of blue apron online foods delivery service on dish (focus on center of phone screen)
Where next for APRN after equity offering crushed share price? Photo: Ralf Liebhold / Shutterstock

Blue Apron (APRN) has been on a low tide for years, unable to reach the 2017 high of $150, trading between $2 and $3 in October.  A recent partnership with Amazon (AMZ) attracted interest. However,  it was outshadowed by the equity offering that hurt the APRN stock price.

Can the share price recover and what is the latest Blue Apron stock forecast suggesting? Here we take a look at the latest news and developments that are guiding the price. 

What is Blue Apron?

Blue Apron was founded in 2012 by three friends Ilia Papas, Matt Salzberg, and Matt Wadiak, who wanted to make cooking chef-recommended recipes easy and accessible.

The New York-based company provides weekly subscription-based service, delivering custom food boxes or meal kits that contain all the ingredients necessary to re-create a chef-recommended recipe.

Blue Apron went public in June 2017 with an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $10. Its stock is trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker APRN. 

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APRN stock price struggles to repeat 2017 highs

When the company went public, its IPO of $10 was lower than expected, highly influenced by Amazon’s deal to buy Whole Food Markets. That start saw the stock losing over 70% of its value in the first five months of the listing.

Over the last five years, APRN has disappointed shareholders with the loss of 51.16% – a major contrast to the 6.83% growth of the industry standard, data from Morningstar showed.

APRN was on a positive roll between April 2018 and July 2018, surging by more than 110% during the period. Yet it was followed by a 50% dip in the coming weeks as Chick-fil-A, a popular American fast-food chain, announced a test run of meal kits sales.

In June 2019, the company announced a reverse stock split 1 for 15 to boost the troubled share price. A reverse stock split consolidates a number of shares into fewer shares that trade at a higher price without affecting the overall market capitalisation.  In case of Blue Apron’s reverse split, investors received one share for each 15.

Between July 2018 and February 2020, APRN stock continued to decline, reaching the all-time low on 25 February 2020 at $2.05 (reverse stock split adjusted) – down 96.5% since its July 2018 highs of $58. In March 2020, however, the stock surged to $16.25 as the company announced that it was adding a number of "premium recipes to its menu". 

In May 2020, the meal-kit provider noted that it was en route for “sustained long-term growth” as demand for its food boxes grew amid the Covid-19 pandemic with APRN seeing several hikes throughout July 2020.

Blue Apron stock price, 2017-2022In the aftermath of the pandemic, APRN lost 78.6% of its gains falling to $3.88 in September 2021. Some positive price action was seen in December 2021, when Blue Apron made its recipes available with Amazon Alexa. In 2022, APRN stock has continued to fall in line with the wider negative sentiment. 

Blue Apron second-quarter results 

Blue Apron announced its second-quarter results on 8 August  seeing year-over-year revenue surge by 6% to $124.2m. The numbers, however, missed  analysts’ estimates of $125m. Average revenue per customer subscription increased to $328. 

The company’s president and CEO, Linda Findley, noted that despite surging inflation, Blue Apron saw an increase in key customer engagement metrics and added that the firm had reached a new investment agreement with RBJ, which could strengthen its financial position.

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Blue Apron, however, downgraded its revenue growth outlook for the full year. “As a result of persistent inflationary pressures which are impacting consumer demand, the company believes it is prudent to adjust its 2022 revenue growth target to 7% to 13% compared with 2021, and focus on driving to profitability,” the company said. 

Blue Apron’s stock sale and other news driving APRN

In October, Blue Apron partnered with online retail giant Amazon to make its food boxes available for customers without a subscription. This news was outshadowed by the firm’s decision to sell around $15m worth of its Class A common stock at an at-the-market equity offering program.

Findley explained this decision as a great opportunity for the company to get more funds, which it can use to expand the business. However, APRN has fallen 20% since the announcement, as of 18 October. 

Rising competition in the sector could affect Blue Apron stock predictions, according to Invezz editor Jayson Derrick, who noted that US grocery giant Kroger announced the acquisition of smaller rival Albertsons last week:

“Kroger has a very strong food kit brand of its own as part of a partnership with notable celebrity chef Rachael Ray… [which] would presumably become available for delivery across Albertsons’ online network as well. This poses a serious competitive threat to Blue Apron given Kroger’s heavy investments in its fulfilment centres across the US.”

Aj Bell financial analyst Danni Hewson noted that the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic affected APRN stock in the last year. She said: 

“Blue Apron’s suffered from the same malaise that’s impacted many ‘pandemic winners’, the end of lockdowns has meant increased competition and inflation has turned pretty much everything on its head. Customers are having to cut back on all those nice to haves and dining habits formed during those Covid years that didn't get the chance to become entrenched.”

Hewson added that rising inflation and the loss of the company’s CFO, Randy Greben were among other factors leading to a negative view on the  APRN stock forecast, noting;

“It’s not hard to see why stocks have tumbled to record lows and it's also understandable that a tie up with Amazon hasn’t delivered the kind of boost the company might have hoped for. That deal should open up the market and create potential customers, but those customers are still worried about budgets and meal kits are undeniably ‘nice to haves’.”

Hewson gave a bearish Blue Apron stock forecast, noting that in the long term “the business has a great proposition but it’s clear the short and medium term is going to be challenging.” She stressed that if Blue Apron is able to grow a client base, it could potentially flourish.

Blue Apron stock forecast for 2023 and beyond

Based on the consensus view of three analysts, the stock was rated as a ‘buy’, according to the data compiled by MarketBeat, as of 18 October, with all three analysts rating the stock a ‘buy’.

The average APRN stock forecast for the next year was for a rise to $9.67. The most positive Blue Apron stock forecast saw APRN increase to $10, while the lowest suggested it could fall to $9.

Algorithm-based forecaster Wallet Investor gave a bearish Blue Apron share price forecast, as of 18 October, calling the stock a “bad long-term investment”.

In its Blue Apron stock forecast for 2022, the site predicted the stock to reach $2.416, while its Blue Apron stock forecast for 2025 saw APRN shares fall to $0.000001 by December that year. The site’s long-term Blue Apron stock predictions for 2026 and 2027 saw APRN remain at $0.000001.

Note that analysts and algorithm-based forecasts can be wrong. Their predictions shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. 

Always conduct your own due diligence before trading, looking at the latest news, a wide range of analyst commentary, technical and fundamental analysis on the stock. Keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade money that you cannot afford to lose.

FAQs

Is Blue Apron a good stock to buy?

Whether APRN is a good investment for you will depend on your own investment objectives and the research you have carried out on the stock. Remember, it’s very important to form your own opinion of a company’s prospects and its likelihood of achieving analysts’ targets. Keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future returns. And never trade money that you cannot afford to lose.

Will Blue Apron stock go up or down?

The consensus forecast from analysts, compiled by MarketBeat, as of 18 October, was that APRN could rise to $9.67 in the next 12 months. The most positive Blue Apron stock forecast saw APRN increase to $10, while the lowest suggested a fall to $9. 

Wallet Investor, however, gave a bearish Blue Apron share price forecast, seeing APRN reach $2.416 in 2022 and fall to $0.000001 by December 2025. Note, however, that their predictions can be wrong. It’s important to remember that forecasts can be wrong. You need to carry out your own analysis on the stock and make your own mind up about its prospects.

Should I invest in Blue Apron stock?

Whether you should invest in APRN stock should depend on your personal circumstances and risk appetite. You should always do your own research and evaluate the level of risk you are prepared to accept before investing. Never invest money you cannot afford to lose.

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You can still benefit if the market moves in your favour, or make a loss if it moves against you. However, with traditional trading you enter a contract to exchange the legal ownership of the individual shares or the commodities for money, and you own this until you sell it again.
CFDs are leveraged products, which means that you only need to deposit a percentage of the full value of the CFD trade in order to open a position. But with traditional trading, you buy the assets for the full amount. In the UK, there is no stamp duty on CFD trading, but there is when you buy stocks, for example.
CFDs attract overnight costs to hold the trades (unless you use 1-1 leverage), which makes them more suited to short-term trading opportunities. Stocks and commodities are more normally bought and held for longer. You might also pay a broker commission or fees when buying and selling assets direct and you’d need somewhere to store them safely.
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