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APT/BTC prediction: Can ‘Solana killer’ Aptos overcome rough launch to deliver returns?

By Iliana Mavrou

Edited by Jekaterina Drozdovica

11:00, 5 November 2022

3D render of Aptos tokens
Can ‘Solana killer’ Aptos’ native token APT overcome rough launch to deliver returns against the cryptocurrency pioneer BTC? Photo: APT/BTC forecast / Shutterstock

The recently launched Aptos (APT), nicknamed as the ‘Solana killer’, has lost over 25% of its value since hitting $10.15 on 23 October 2022. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency pioneer Bitcoin (BTC) is down by around 70% since its November 2021 gains. 

How do APT and BTC trade against each other and what’s in stock for the APT/BTC forecast?

What is APT/BTC?

APT/BTC is the exchange rate between APT, the native token of the Aptos blockchain, and BTC, the native cryptocurrency of the Bitcoin Network. 

Charlton Haupt, CEO of Bad Astro Society, explained to that the APT/BTC rate is calculated “by taking the value of 1 APT and dividing by the value of 1 BTC”. 

In 2009, a creator or group of anonymous creators nicknamed Satoshi Nakamoto mined the very first BTC Genesis block. Bitcoin was the first ever digital asset to use blockchain technology through which the coin is built, exchanged, stored and distributed. 

Today, the cryptocurrency is accepted by more than 15,000 businesses worldwide as a payment method, including at Microsoft (MSFT), PayPal (PYPL) and Overstock (OSTK).

The BTC blockchain uses a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism. It’s secured by ‘miners’ tasked with solving mathematical equations to verify BTC transactions through a process known as crypto mining. In exchange, miners are rewarded with BTC tokens for their work. 

At every 210,000 mined BTC blocks – it takes around four years – the blockchain goes through a  halving event, when BTC rewards are cut in half, thus reducing the overall amount of coins in circulation. The maximum supply of newly mined bitcoins is limited at 21 million. 

Aptos Labs was created by Mo Shaikh and Avery Ching in 2021 as a Layer 1 blockchain used for the development of scalable and future-proof applications. 

Its scalability means that the blockchain will not slow down as it gets busier – an issue faced by many similar blockchains like Ethereum (ETH). While Solana (SOL) is already trying to solve this problem, Aptos has been coined as the ‘Solana Killer’. 

Aptos stresses that it is “a safe, scalable, and upgradeable Web3 infrastructure” that possesses new innovations in the consensus, smart contract design, system security, performance and decentralisation areas. The blockchain is used for the building of decentralised finance (DeFi) projects, including decentralised exchanges (DEX), lending protocols and staking. The platform also supports the creation of non-fungible tokens (NFTs). 

Aptos uses a Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. APT is its native cryptocurrency launched in mid-October 2022 and used for transaction fees, staking and governance. APT coins do not have a maximum supply. 

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APT/BTC price history since Aptos launch

It has been less than a month since the APT token went live on exchanges. The APT/BTC exchange had a volatile ride since APT launch, dipping by 17.1% within a day, from 0.0004425BTC on 19 October to 0.0003668BTC on 20 October.  

In the days that followed, the APT/BTC rate moved sideways, gaining about 8% by 22 October, however, remaining in bearish territory, according to data on CoinMarketCap

In line with a surge in the APT/USD price, the APT/BTC rate jumped 34% within a day, reaching its all-time high of 0.0005322BTC as the blockchain achieved a peak in its transactions per second (TPS) at 500 for the first time. 

APT to BTC chart, October 2022 – November 2022

The bull trend in the APT/BTC chart lasted for the following two days. But, the rate never managed to reach past highs , even as PancakeSwap and the CAKE token were deployed on the Aptos blockchain.  

Another small hike in the APT/BTC price was observed on 27 October when the APT price in USD surged to $9.5279. APT/BTC was trading at 0.00046BTC at the time, up by around 8% from 0.0004253BTC a day earlier.

APT to USD chart, October 2022 – November 2022


3,512.09 Price
+0.070% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0616%
Short position overnight fee 0.0137%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 6.00


0.13 Price
+1.000% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0753%
Short position overnight fee 0.0069%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.0012872


66,743.50 Price
-0.450% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0616%
Short position overnight fee 0.0137%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 106.00


0.60 Price
+3.190% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0753%
Short position overnight fee 0.0069%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.01168

Since its 27 October 2022 highs, the APT/BTC rate embarked on a bear trend, falling by 12.5% to 0.0004027BTC on 1 November. Overnight, the pairing experienced an even bigger dip, losing an additional 12% of its value down to 0.0003527BTC. As of 4 November, the APT/BTC exchange rate stood at 0.0003565BTC. 

APT/BTC key drivers and developments 

On 31 October, the Fletch on Aptos wallet, the first to be launched on the blockchain, said that it had recorded 15,000 active users that week and over 21,000 downloads since going live. 

Over the past few days, Aptos has been expanding with a number of platforms joining the blockchain including MathWallet, BloctoApp and Toruga Finance.

Bad Astro Society’s Haupt noted that when APT was launched, it was listed in the top 100 biggest cryptocurrencies on CoinMarketCap by market capitalisation, which gave the asset “a lot of attention and hype”. As of 4 November, the token was listed as the 52nd largest token by capitalisation.

Analysts were noting, however, that because APT was launched a couple of weeks ago, it is still too early to identify what exactly could drive the APT/BTC forecast in the future.

CoinJournal’s investment expert, Dan Ashmore, said that just like most cryptocurrencies, APT’s price is likely to be heavily correlated to bitcoin’s.

Since Aptos’ goal is to become a leader in the development of safe and accessible Web3 user experience, it must strive to be cheaper and faster in order for it to surpass its competitors. 

The co-founder and CRO of Bitcoin IRA Chris Kline told that while Aptos has a strong team consisting of former Meta employees, the project is raising a number of questions surrounding its tokenomics. He added:

 “Aptos hasn’t increased its validator nodes, meaning other users haven’t yet jumped from other chains to build here. The key to any altcoins long term success will include more exchanges, like Coinbase, listing projects like this. Aptos hopes to increase accessibility and adoption, ushering in new developments that showcase innovative ideas across the blockchain ecosystem. Time will tell.”

APT/BTC forecast for 2023 and beyond

Based on the analysis of past performance, as of 4 November, the algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor predicted that APT/USD could surge to $16.044 in 2023 and $47.853 in 2027.

In terms of its BTC value forecast, the site saw BTC/USD trade at $21,880.31 in 2023 and reach $26,291.21 by 2027.

While Wallet Investor did not provide a direct APT/BTC forecast, data suggested that the exchange rate could reach 0.000733262BTC in 2023 and surge to 0.0018201BTC in 2027.  

DigitalCoinPrice predicted that APT/USD could rise to $8.85 by the end of 2022. The site’s data, as of 4 November, showed that the coin was expected to trade at $11.86 in 2023 and $19.31 in 2025. Its long-term prediction saw the coin reaching $40.53 in 2030. 

The site also gave an upbeat BTC/USD forecast, as of 4 November, expecting the coin to grow to $25,610.05 by the end of 2022, reach $33,426.87 in 2023, $52,934.96 in 2025 and surpass $111,800 in 2030. 

In line with the positive forecasts, the platform gave an upbeat APT/BTC forecast for 2022, seeing to the token reach 0.0003456BTC and 0.0003548BTC in 2023. The site’s APT/BTC forecast for 2025 stood at 0.0003648BTC. Its long-term APT/BTC forecast for 2030 was 0.00036252BTC.

In contrast to this outlook, Bad Astro Society’s Haupt gave a downbeat aptos to bitcoin forecast expecting the pairing to continue on a bearish trend in line with negative investor sentiment, noting: 

“With Aptos launching at this point in the market cycle, I expect it to follow the direction of the overall macro environment rather than decorrelating and doing its own thing. Should the crypto market as a whole take off from here into a bull market, then Aptos will follow in price. Should things continue to move sideways, and or take another leg down, Aptos price will suffer.”

CoinJournal’s Ashmore supported this APT/BTC forecast saying that “most alt coins fall relative to bitcoin” during bear markets. He added:

“With crypto markets as a whole struggling mightily, and macro variables still very much up in the air, it would not be a surprise to see APT/BTC fall, however short-term predictions in crypto markets are notoriously difficult. This is made harder again by the fact that the APT token only floated two weeks ago.”

Note that analysts’ and algorithm-based APT/BTC predictions can be wrong and shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. 

Always conduct your own due diligence on a cryptocurrency project before trading, looking at the latest news, a wide range of analyst commentary and technical analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future returns and never trade money you cannot afford to lose.


Why has APT/BTC been dropping?

The APT token was launched in mid-October 2022, meaning that it is still a very young cryptocurrency. Analysts are noting that because it was launched during a bear market, macroeconomic factors are due to affect the APT/BTC price.

Will APT/BTC go up or down?

As of 4 November, algorithm-based forecasting service Wallet Investor predicted that the APT/BTC forecast could be 0.000733262BTC in 2023 and surge to 0.0018201BTC in 2027. Meanwhile, DigitalCoinPrice expected the pair to reach 0.0003456BTC in 2022 and 0.0003548BTC in 2023. The site’s APT/BTC forecast for 2025 stood at 0.0003648BTC. Its long-term APT/BTC forecast for 2030 was 0.00036252BTC.  Note algorithm-based forecasts can be wrong and shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research.

When is the best time to trade APT/BTC?

Cryptocurrency markets are open 24/7, which means you can trade APT/BTC at any time of day. Studying technical analysis and reading the latest news to shape your own market view could help you figure out which time works best for your trading strategy.

Is APT/BTC a buy, sell or hold?

Whether APT/BTC is buy, sell or a hold should depend on your trading strategy, risk tolerance and portfolio composition. You should do your own research, looking at the latest news, technical analysis, and analyst commentary before trading.  Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. And never trade money that you cannot afford to lose.

Markets in this article

Bitcoin / USD
66743.50 USD
-301.8 -0.450%
Microsoft Corp (Extended Hours)
437.55 USD
-3.84 -0.870%
PayPal Holdings (Extended Hours)
59.37 USD
-0.85 -1.420%
Ethereum / USD
3512.09 USD
2.4 +0.070%
Solana / USD
171.5167 USD
1.1114 +0.660%

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