Industrial metals prices have made some solid gains this year, and leading the pack are those that have been affected by the changing geopolitical landscape in recent weeks.
First there was the decision in March 2018 by President Trump in the US to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium - part of his efforts to save jobs in the Rust Belt states by making home produced metals more price competitive with cheaper Chinese imports.
Then, earlier this month, in response to suspected Russian involvement in the Salisbury poisonings and its continued support of Syria - despite President Assad's suspected chemical warfare on civilians - many countries have joined in sanctions against Russian companies.
April has been a good month for commodities. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has risen 4% since the start of the month, led by gains for industrial metals.
Copper, which is often seen as the base metal benchmark, is up 4.4% in April.
By contrast, aluminium is up more than 26% in April and nickel is 11.5% higher on the month.
On Wednesday, aluminium rose nearly 5% to an intraday high of $2,529.75 per tonne - the highest it's been since the days of the so-called "metals supercycle" in 2011 when China's economy was still growing by double-digits per year and its appetite for industrial metals seemed insatiable.
Regional production and consumption
Much of the world's copper is mined in South America, Eurasia and Australia, however. The US is yet to fall out with these regions under the Trump administration.
Nickel's second-biggest producer is Russia's Norilsk Nickel. While Norilsk is not currently under sanction, Oleg Deripaska, the oligarch who owns 25% of the company, is and there are concerns that it could be included in any additional sanctions.
Deripaska is also in the frame at the world's largest producer of aluminium: United Company Rusal, in which he owns a major stake through his co-ownership of conglomerate EN+.
Regionally, Russia is the second-biggest producer of aluminium behind China with annual output of somewhere in the region of 8 million tonnes a year. China produces a massive 37 million tonnes a year.
But China is also, by far and away, the world’s biggest consumer of aluminium – more than half of global production in 2017. So, even if China, which is not bound to US sanctions, deals with Rusal, this still leaves global aluminium markets extremely tight.
"Rusal produced 13% of aluminium outside of China last year, so the repercussions are serious," says ING commodities strategist Oliver Nugent.
In total last year, the US produced 741,000 tonnes of aluminium, but imported 6.2 million tonnes of which more than 700,000 tonnes came from Russia, according to the US Geological Survey.
The world's second-biggest aluminium producer, meanwhile, is China's Hongqiao Group, hit by the US import tariffs.
But the biggest threat to supply, and therefore likely to boost prices further, is the mounting tensions between Russia and the West.
Already, Goldman Sachs is forecasting aluminium prices to hit $3,000 in the near-term.
The investment bank said in a note on Wednesday said that US sanctions on Russian oligarchs and the companies they own or control have "dramatically affected" the aluminium market.
"The uncertainty associated with our forecasts is great. In the event that resolutions are not found quickly enough, prices are likely to exceed our forecasts," the note said.
Sanctions affecting the aluminium market have come at a time when it was already experiencing some tightness in supply due to operational problems at a Norsk Hydro refinery in Brazil.
Aluminium is used in hundreds of everyday applications from building motor cars to manufacturing drinks cans.
Depending on how long the tensions between Russia and the West persist, the potential for the sanctions to hit global consumers and feed into inflation is a concern. Nickel, less so.
The price impact seen on aluminium on global commodity markets already, is not inconsiderable. Goldman Sachs' forecasts add a further frisson of worry for manufacturers that use the metal.
"We expect a degree of panic buying to take hold as those with Rusal contracts scramble for new material," says Nugent at ING.